Reading the Aviationist article, it is stated that the A321 was flying at FL340, approximately 10400 meters. There are only a few anti aircraft missile systems capable of reaching that altitude. Even considering the assumption that the missiles were launched from a mountain limits the available hardware. More or less all shoulder launched weapons can be ruled out.
So, either there was never a threat to the aeroplane, or there was a serious attempt, using the best stuff they could muster.
It is believed that Syria recently obtained a few SA17 batteries from Russia. Those have the capability to reach above that altitude. If the Syrians used them to attempt to shoot down a civil airliner it would leave them with the smoking gun, as it is not believed that any of the SA17s have ended up in the hands of the opposition or Hizbolla.
Syria is also believed to have owned the SA8, which has a maximum ceiling of 12 km. Some of those are allegedly in the hands of the opposition and likely the Hizbolla. This is the more likely of the weapons used. Here, the smoking gun can be in several pockets. There are limiting factors;
All high altitude missile systems rely on tracker and/ or illuminator radars. They are all vehicle borne, and the mobility to deploy seriously off-road is limited. There are also reliability factors. If taken over by a secondary operator, without the logistic technical support of a base regiment, they will quite rapidly become useless due to lack of spares and repair facilities.
This is quite an interesting mind-game. Anyone who has better insight into the power-balance, willing to add to the discussion?
I can not help asking the question; what made them fly that route?
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