Sukhoi Superjet missing in Indonesia

[brianw999]

Whatever comes about from all the inevitable investigations there is one certainty to be recognised....

.....Cumulo Granitus strikes again.

[Horatio]

Originally Posted by TeeVee

Crappy Never-ending News is reporting that the Russians have begun a "criminal investigation" into "safety violations." Foul play? Indonesian islamic fundamentalists exacting revenge for the nice way the russians have treated russian muslims?

i'm just talking crap, i know. but why do you think they have launched a criminal investigation so early on? maybe they know something the press is not reporting...

http://www.cnn.com/2012/05/10/world/...html?hpt=hp_t2

What crap. I think the Russians should start by investigating how much vodka the pilot downed prior to the flight.

[Highkeas]

Could it be that the area maps are inacurate?
Or maybe an aircraft instrumentation or Glonass (assuming they use this system) issue?
I hope they had data recorders and that they are recovered.

[snydersnapshots]

Originally Posted by mawheatley

Has to seem plausible. But with a 10,000 hour captain at the controls?

The captain in the American Airlines B757 CFIT accident in Cali, Colombia had 13,000 hours...

[Arrow]

Originally Posted by TeeVee

Crappy Never-ending News is reporting that the Russians have begun a "criminal investigation" into "safety violations." Foul play? Indonesian islamic fundamentalists exacting revenge for the nice way the russians have treated russian muslims?

i'm just talking crap, i know. but why do you think they have launched a criminal investigation so early on? maybe they know something the press is not reporting...

http://www.cnn.com/2012/05/10/world/...html?hpt=hp_t2

Trying to muddy the waters early on to distract those for whom this incident will quickly fade from mind in favour of the next breathless bit of important news.

[Evan]

Originally Posted by snydersnapshots

The captain in the American Airlines B757 CFIT accident in Cali, Colombia had 13,000 hours...

The captain of Airblue that boned it into the Margallas Hills had 25,497 hours. And he ignored 21 EGWPS warnings before he managed to do that. He didn't understand how to correctly input heading commands into the A/P. Perhaps this is another case of old skills / new interface.

[Gabriel]

Originally Posted by snydersnapshots

The captain in the American Airlines B757 CFIT accident in Cali, Colombia had 13,000 hours...

And it was in perfect VFR. The mountain was perfectly visible... to anyone who looked.

Which brings another possibility here, where the weather was reported VFR too: Distraction. Perhaps the pilots were "busy" showing the gadgets of the plane to the guests and nobody cared to look out there.

[James Bond]

Found the exact location

-6° 42' 35.00", +106° 44' 3.00"

[B757300]

At least early on, it sounds like a case of CFIT.

[Evan]

Originally Posted by Gabriel

And it was in perfect VFR. The mountain was perfectly visible... to anyone who looked.

Which brings another possibility here, where the weather was reported VFR too: Distraction. Perhaps the pilots were "busy" showing the gadgets of the plane to the guests and nobody cared to look out there.

Witnesses on the ground reported dense fog, for what that's worth.

[snydersnapshots]

Originally Posted by Evan

The captain of Airblue that boned it into the Margallas Hills had 25,497 hours. And he ignored 21 EGWPS warnings before he managed to do that. He didn't understand how to correctly input heading commands into the A/P. Perhaps this is another case of old skills / new interface.

It's easy to get caught up in all the magic. Sometimes you have to say "screw it" and click the button on the yoke/stick and the button on the throttles and fly the airplane the old fashioned way...

Having said that, I'm hesitant to point fingers because there but for the grace of God go I. Any pilot can get caught up in a chain that leads to an accident, no matter how much experience he or she has.

[mawheatley]

Originally Posted by snydersnapshots

Any pilot can get caught up in a chain that leads to an accident, no matter how much experience he or she has.

It's the smart ones that understand this.

[Fear_of_Flying]

Originally Posted by snydersnapshots

It's easy to get caught up in all the magic. Sometimes you have to say "screw it" and click the button on the yoke/stick and the button on the throttles and fly the airplane the old fashioned way...

Having said that, I'm hesitant to point fingers because there but for the grace of God go I. Any pilot can get caught up in a chain that leads to an accident, no matter how much experience he or she has.

Could you (or another pilot here) please explain the basics of how pilots navigate in a situation like this, and what possible scenarios could have led to CFIT?

[Evan]

Originally Posted by snydersnapshots

Having said that, I'm hesitant to point fingers because there but for the grace of God go I.

Do you really see yourself ignoring 21 EGWPS warnings (not to mention ATC commands and the pleas of your copilot to please turn off your current heading?) I'm not at all hesitant to point fingers in the Airblue CFIT accident.

[James Bond]

[mawheatley]

Sorry to labour the point, but I still find it very hard to believe this is nothing more than human error. This was not only a very experienced pilot - he was their chief test pilot. This was a man who, by the very nature of his job, presumably understood risks better than most. This is someone whose 10,000hrs had not all been accumulated at altitude, flying longhaul, relatively mundane, flights. And although this is a brand new aeroplane, it's also in service with a couple of airlines, so it has obviously gone through, and passed, a rigorous testing programme. I think it's fair to say he knew the aeroplane, and its capabilities, and probably its limitations, better than anyone on the planet.

[seahawk]

Stranger things have happened. Remember the A320 at Perpignan. A little technical error and pilots on a check flight, doing tests in less than suitable conditions (too low in that case).

[Highkeas]

From the photos in post #55 it looks like the aircraft's impact might have caused a landslide.

[mawheatley]

Originally Posted by seahawk

Stranger things have happened. Remember the A320 at Perpignan. A little technical error and pilots on a check flight, doing tests in less than suitable conditions (too low in that case).

Agreed, but even that was a mechanical problem, in that the AoA sensor froze up. I really hope this gets properly investigated, but I have this feeling they're going to be very quick to say "pilot error" in an attempt to protect sales/shareholders.

[Gabriel]

From some user comments in Aviation Herald (take it for what it is), it might be the case that the plane was flying under visual flight rules (VFR).

Let's take that hypothesis as true for a second.

In VFR, the pilot is the ONLY one responsible for ensuring separation between his airplane and the ground, obstacles, other planes and clouds, and for keeping in VFR meteorological conditions (VMC).

The ATC has no reason not to accept your request to descend below the mountain peaks. You are VFR, you are seeing those mountains, you can surely maneuver to navigate in a way to avoid them, you are REQUIRED to do so.

You might be familiar, for example, with the ATC asking two planes that are coming close together, too close for IFR separation, "Airplane A, do you have airplane B in sight? Airplane B, do you have airplane A in sight? Yes? Good, keep visual separation." (The movie "Pushing Tin" has a scene like that).

The pilot was then responsible to keep away from mountains and from clouds or fog, or to request an IFR clearance if he could not keep the flight in VMC. Had he done this last thing, the ATC should must advised him that he was below the IFR minimum clearance altitude for that area and required him to immediately climb to a safe altitude.

So, be it that the mountain was obscured by fog or cloud, or that it was clearly visible out of the windshield, if they were flying VFR and if this was a CFIT accident, then 100% of the blame goes to the pilot. He should have stayed away of clouds, fog and mountains. He was required to.

Of course, that needs someone flying the plane (which is always a requirement) and scrutinizing through the windshield to ensure separation and VMC (which is part of "flying the plane" when under VFR).

What I suspect (and I have no proof, just an intuition) is that both pilots were distracted showing off the plane to the customers and press (look, this switch is to do this, and that screen is for that), and there was nobody looking out the windshield to maintain visual separation with vapour and granite. A typical case of "nobody flying the plane".