Sukhoi Superjet missing in Indonesia

[Evan]

Originally Posted by snydersnapshots

They were cleared from 10,000' to 6,000'. In many countries, ATC is responsible for TRAFFIC separation only, not TERRAIN separation, thus they can clear you down to whatever altitude you ask for assuming there is no traffic. They expect the pilot to maintain his own terrain clearance.

CFIT certainly seems plausible here. Or stall trying to climb out of it. If so, there won't be much chance of survivors. Let's hope it's not that.

[fmedina]

http://rt.com/news/russian-plane-missing-indonesia-877/

R i p

[orangehuggy]

nothing left of it

[Dmitry]

https://twitter.com/#!/Anopov/status...111872/photo/1
http://s019.radikal.ru/i642/1205/cf/193ce99dfadf.jpg

the last landing and take off
http://lookmysite.livejournal.com/1725.html
http://youtu.be/IIV20j3K4aM

Rip...

[Dmitry]

The wreckage is on the vertical slope.

[fmedina]

It seems unreal to me that a modern airliner can crash into the side of a mountain? Wouldn't I know that mountain was there if I had my phone on with gps on and google maps going?

Shouldn't there be something a little better than that technology for a passener plane?

[James Bond]

As soon as I heard the details Pan Am Flight 812 came to mind.

Does anyone have the coordinates?

[brianw999]

Originally Posted by fmedina

It seems unreal to me that a modern airliner can crash into the side of a mountain? Wouldn't I know that mountain was there if I had my phone on with gps on and google maps going?

Shouldn't there be something a little better than that technology for a passener plane?

The technologyarts is with us to warn of terrain and was no doubt fitted to the Sukhoi. It's very good but there are two things it doesn't do.

1. It doesn't stop us getting into dangerous altitudes and...
2. Once there, it doesn't open the throttles and pull up out of danger.

You can have all the high tech gear in the world available but if the pilot doesn't respond appropriately or the aircraft no longer has the performance to get out of trouble then that's it.....you're toast !
This incident certainly looks like a CFIT situation. The crash site indicates powered flight into the near vertical wall of the mountain. It must have been one hell of an impact as reports say that the deceased have been reduced to small parts.
May those lost RIP.

[Evan]

Originally Posted by brianw999

This incident certainly looks like a CFIT situation. The crash site indicates powered flight into the near vertical wall of the mountain. It must have been one hell of an impact as reports say that the deceased have been reduced to small parts.
May those lost RIP.

Except for this:

Originally Posted by Aviation Herald

The coordinator of the rescue operation said, that the aircraft appeared relatively intact from the air however has received substantial damage after leaving a trail away from the crater down the slope

The would indicate that this was not a head-on CFIT. But then there is a crater...

Witnesses report dense fog at the time. The crash apparently happened about 1.5km from the point of last transmission, so only seconds later. CFIT would be the most obvious theory. Is is possible that this aircraft did not have GPS and EGWPS installed and/or functional at the time? Is this a case of you-get-what-you=pay-for? How does this happen to a 21st-century GPS-equipped jet piloted by a Capt with 10,000 hours? Once again, I'm miffed.

[3WE]

This is the latest of many many mountain crashes where the plane deliberately descended below the mountain tops.

With old technolgoy- you were supposed to know your location and the mountain's location. With new technology, you would hopefully see it on a moving map.

It seems so incomprehensible, but it happens- and I posted on another website that it seems there's some Murphy's-Law-Tractor-Beam that sucks aircraft into mountains- even though 1940-era maps and tools and 21st century moving maps and computer integrated navigation should give you the ability to stay away.

Are some of these flights trying for a great view and deliberately flying towards the mountain, and then, when the mountain is obscured, they continue, thinking that the fog will break (and technolgy will protect them)?

What's different between this month and last?

[3WE]

In looking at a looser photo and making some dangerous assumptions- it appears it may have hit a smaller peak to the side of a bigger one. Again, wondering if they weren't doing some great 'critical' navigation to miss the big one, but getting burned by the devil in the details.

[Dmitry]

I wonder how badly this disaster will affect the program of SSJ-100 in general. Must be a terrible blow at the beginning of its epoch.

[Arrow]

Originally Posted by 3WE

Are some of these flights trying for a great view and deliberately flying towards the mountain, and then, when the mountain is obscured, they continue, thinking that the fog will break (and technolgy will protect them)?

[Parlour talking] It wouldn't surprise me to hear. Given the nature of the flight, it would seem to be a not-unlikely scenario and under the circumstances a less egregious circumstance than the thought that there might be something inherently wrong with the plane or its systems. [/parlour talking]

[Evan]

Originally Posted by 3WE

Are some of these flights trying for a great view and deliberately flying towards the mountain, and then, when the mountain is obscured, they continue, thinking that the fog will break (and technolgy will protect them)?

{parlour talk}

or... since this was a publicity flight... there were press aboard... were they deliberately showing off their needle-threading capabilities... and got too close in the fog...

...showing off a la Airbus 1988...

{/parlour talk}

[mawheatley]

Has to seem plausible. But with a 10,000 hour captain at the controls?

[Arrow]

Originally Posted by mawheatley

Has to seem plausible. But with a 10,000 hour captain at the controls?

Again [Parlour talking] but I would suggest it'd be more likely than from a 1,000 hour captain. Situational overconfidence. IANAP but in every human undertaking, there comes a degree of personal confidence that one has met and bested every conceivable vector of challenge to one's normal undertaking. If there's any positive that seems to be had at this stage is that presumably the end was either quick or immediate for all lost. Not much consolation to those left behind but better than the alternative. [/Parlour talking]

[Fear_of_Flying]

I don't think it makes much sense to suggest that they were trying to get in a little close-up sightseeing or trying to impress anyone with pinpoint flying skills - it was just too foggy, so foggy, in fact, they apparently couldn't see the mountain they were about to fly into.

So that leaves us with the probability that they thought they were somewhere they weren't, and that's the part where I would need someone with expertise to explain the scenarios in which that might happen (in a well-equipped modern aircraft). It doesn't seem that they just grazed the summit, either, they were down a ways.

[mawheatley]

Originally Posted by Arrow

Again [Parlour talking] but I would suggest it'd be more likely than from a 1,000 hour captain. Situational overconfidence. IANAP but in every human undertaking, there comes a degree of personal confidence that one has met and bested every conceivable vector of challenge to one's normal undertaking. If there's any positive that seems to be had at this stage is that presumably the end was either quick or immediate for all lost. Not much consolation to those left behind but better than the alternative. [/Parlour talking]

I understand that. I read on the AF447 forum that the two times when a pilot is most likely to mess up is 100hrs and 10,000 hrs. (Not 10, 1,000 or 100,000.)

But even so, this kind of mistake (if that's what it was - I know it's far to early to state that's what it was) still seems unbelievable for a 10,000 pilot. To put that into perspective for desk jockeys like me, that's like working an 8hr day, every week day, for 5yrs and only taking 2wks vacation per year! And that's completely ignoring any regulations governing time between flights, mandated days off etc.

[TeeVee]

Crappy Never-ending News is reporting that the Russians have begun a "criminal investigation" into "safety violations." Foul play? Indonesian islamic fundamentalists exacting revenge for the nice way the russians have treated russian muslims?

i'm just talking crap, i know. but why do you think they have launched a criminal investigation so early on? maybe they know something the press is not reporting...

http://www.cnn.com/2012/05/10/world/...html?hpt=hp_t2