Polish President and wife killed in Tu-154 crash

[brianw999]

Don't blame the aircraft...more likely blame the flight crew for a reverse form of "Get-home-itis".

They seem to have allowed the need for a Polish governmental presence at a memorial to overcome the safety of their aircraft. Reports say that they were advised by ATC to divert so don't blame the ground services either.

A terrible tragedy for those on board, their families and the Polish nation. My condolences to all.

[Geebee]

The BBC news web page states:

"According to preliminary reports, it got caught up in the tops of trees, fell to the ground and broke up into pieces. There are no survivors in that crash."
Polish Foreign Ministry spokesman Piotr Paszkowski said it could be assumed with "great certainty" that no-one had survived.
Polish TV worker Slawomir Wisniewski said he had seen the crash from his hotel near the airport.
"I saw through the fog, the aeroplane flying very low with the left wing pointing to the ground," he said.
"I heard something being broken and then that thudding sound. Two flashes of fire next to each other."
It is unclear how many people were on board. Polish officials said the delegation was 88-strong, while local officials said 96 people had been killed.

The confusion of the numbers was clarified here on TV. The delegation was 88 strong but in addition there was an 8 member crew on board.
Fyi, they also found the black boxes as mentioned on Polish television.

[zathras]

According to Russian authorities:
- black boxes has been recovered and being analyzed
- it was a second approach
- rescue teams were dispatched immediately after the crash but there were no survivors
- the plane just before the crash was not only below the descent path but also off the runway axis
- the plane is completely destroyed, debris scattered on length of aprox. 1 km
- casualties will be transported to Moscow

According to media:
- anonymous a/c member states that polish crew was ordered to break the approach and head for the reserve airport (Minsk or Moscow) but did not comply
- some say that it was the fourth, not the second approach
- according to the witnesses, the plane overshot the runway, tried to pull up, but rolled on the left wing which hit the trees.
- footage from the crash site (only Poccua24 was allowed onto the crash site) shows that the plane was completely destroyed and fire broke out. The only parts recognizable for me were the tail section with one engine still attached to it, the other engine lying a couple of meters further, a vertical stabilizer and parts of undercarriage. There were no bigger parts of fuselage visible. Parts of the footage can be seen:
http://www.vesti.ru/videos?vid=267041&p=1&sort=1
- body of the president was found and identified
- there are 97 confirmed casualties right now, but the Russians stated that there could be as many as 132 of them
- the casualties list can be found here
http://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/Wiadomos...e_osoby_w.html

R.I.P for all the victims. Condolences for their families and friends.

Update:
Photos from the crash site:
http://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/Wiadomos..._ZDJECIA_.html

--
Greetz.
Zathras

[ATFS_Crash]

Unfortunate tragedy. Condolences.

Allegedly in fog; four blown approaches then a crash? Didn’t the aircraft and the airport have an ILS system? I don’t understand how a crash like this is very likely with modern equipment. With ILS you should be able to land in virtually blind conditions.

A few questions I would like the investigation to answer: Were they trying to land without ILS, if so why would they land without ILS in fog? Did the pilot have much currency with ILS? Was the ILS functioning properly? Was the ILS jammed or somehow else tampered with (was this terrorism?)?

Originally Posted by brianw999

"Get-home-itis"

Whether it be by aircraft or car; most accidents occur in close proximity of departure point or arrival point (home or destination). This often happens because of complacency/familiarity and because of anxiousness and because in a matter of speech the mind is switching gears.

[HalcyonDays]

Originally Posted by TUNISAIR745

.... it took enough lives this year already.

When was/were the previous incident(s) this year ?

[HalcyonDays]

Originally Posted by Alessandro

As we both know the Tu-154 isn´t a bad aircraft, but now it´s impossible to fly it as VIP
plane in Poland.

Why do you think this ?

[eTang]

a bird flew by a cloud is sailing
a leaf is falling mallow sprouting
and there's silence on high
and the Smolensk forest is steaming fog

Zbigniew Herbert „Buttons”

http://www.president.pl/en/news/news...in-peace-.html

[zathras]

Originally Posted by ATFS_Crash

Unfortunate tragedy. Condolences.

Allegedly in fog; four blown approaches then a crash? Didn’t the aircraft and the airport have an ILS system? I don’t understand how a crash like this is very likely with modern equipment. With ILS you should be able to land in virtually blind conditions.

AFAIK the airport near Smolensk, where the accident took place, is a small military airport and is not equipped with ILS. I suppose it's just because it's tactically insignificant (only one runway 1600 m long).
Besides I'm not sure whether the Tu 154 was equipped to use ILS either...

One more curious fact: a military transport that was originally due to land just before the polish plane has been rerouted to it's reserve airport due to weather.

--
Greetz.
Zathras

[Evan]

I'm curious, on a presidential plane, as to who makes the decision to reject and divert in restrictive weather. If it is the PIC, that is a tremendous amount of state responsibility being placed on the judgment of one individual.

[ATFS_Crash]

Originally Posted by zathras

AFAIK the airport near Smolensk, where the accident took place, is a small military airport and is not equipped with ILS. I suppose it's just because it's tactically insignificant (only one runway 1600 m long).
Besides I'm not sure whether the Tu 154 was equipped to use ILS either...

If that's true, wow. If that is true it doesn't seem very responsible of the pilot and other powers to be to try to land in fog without ILS; particularly with passengers, especially with such high-value passengers.

Don't most large commercial aircraft that fly at night and in weather have ILS? I would think so.

[Curtis Malone]

Originally Posted by Evan

I'm curious, on a presidential plane, as to who makes the decision to reject and divert in restrictive weather. If it is the PIC, that is a tremendous amount of state responsibility being placed on the judgment of one individual.

I certainly hope it's the PIC, you can't run a ship by committee.

[ATFS_Crash]

If this quote is true it may explain why the pilot may have made such a poor judgment. The powers to be may have intimidated the pilot into making dangerous decisions.

In 2008, the pilot of Kaczyński's plane was threatened with dismissal when he refused to land the aircraft in Tbilisi during the South Ossetian war

Source
2010 Polish Air Force Tu-154 crash
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Po...e_Tu-154_crash

[Alessandro]

Originally Posted by HalcyonDays

Why do you think this ?

Polish and Russians has their issues as we all know. Most people are not knowledge of aviation anyways, so inherit the B767s is the best option.

[Geebee]

Originally Posted by zathras

AFAIK the airport near Smolensk, where the accident took place, is a small military airport and is not equipped with ILS. I suppose it's just because it's tactically insignificant (only one runway 1600 m long).
Besides I'm not sure whether the Tu 154 was equipped to use ILS either...

One more curious fact: a military transport that was originally due to land just before the polish plane has been rerouted to it's reserve airport due to weather.

--
Greetz.
Zathras

Correct. That's the information I have as well. The Smolensk airport is not equiped to modern civil standards. As for the presidential Tu-154M, not sure whether the upgrade included the installation of ILS equipment either.
I still am trying to figure out whether the accident happened on the final approach or whether it was a runway overshoot. Anyone who has better/more information on this?

[BoeingKing77]

Originally Posted by ATFS_Crash

Unfortunate tragedy. Condolences.

Allegedly in fog; four blown approaches then a crash? Didn’t the aircraft and the airport have an ILS system? I don’t understand how a crash like this is very likely with modern equipment. With ILS you should be able to land in virtually blind conditions.

A few questions I would like the investigation to answer: Were they trying to land without ILS, if so why would they land without ILS in fog? Did the pilot have much currency with ILS? Was the ILS functioning properly? Was the ILS jammed or somehow else tampered with (was this terrorism?)?

Whether it be by aircraft or car; most accidents occur in close proximity of departure point or arrival point (home or destination). This often happens because of complacency/familiarity and because of anxiousness and because in a matter of speech the mind is switching gears.

Its a TU so probably more then half the equipment on board was not working properly.Some ground those aircraft,they are 2 unsafe to fly!

R.I.P. to everyone and the families.


On MSN it said


"The crash devastated the upper echelons of Poland's political and military establishments. On board were the army chief of staff, the navy chief commander, and heads of the air and land forces. Also killed were the national bank president, deputy foreign minister, army chaplain, head of the National Security Office, deputy parliament speaker, Olympic Committee head, civil rights commissioner and at least two presidential aides and three lawmakers, the Polish foreign ministry said."

[Geebee]

The Tu-154M which crashed here has an overall much higher level of reliability and other engines than the majority of Tu-154.

Tu-154M
Currently, the Tu-154M is the production standard which first flew in 1982. It uses more efficient Aviadvigatel D-30KU turbofans. It is far more economical, quiet, and reliable than previous versions. Aeroflot consistently achieves dispatch reliability above 99% with the Tu-154M, which compares favorably with current western airliners.

This particular model had been completely overhauled in December 2009 and was being maintained carefully. Remember, it was a governmental plane.

Let's see what the outcome of the investigations will bring. Besides of the Russian investigation, the Polish have indicated already to plan their own investigations.

What I still do not understand is how so many high level ranked officials were allowed to fly on the same plane.

[zathras]

Originally Posted by Geebee

The Tu-154M which crashed here has an overall much higher level of reliability and other engines than the majority of Tu-154.

This particular model had been completely overhauled in December 2009 and was being maintained carefully. Remember, it was a governmental plane.

While it's all true, we should also remember that this particular Tu had a history of malfunctions. So the other one in fleet. A couple of times they were both grounded at the same time forcing authorities to use other means of transport. AFAIK last malfunction happened when it carried rescue team to/from Haiti. The plane was grounded trough the night till the crew managed to fix whatever was wrong with it.
On the other hand it seemed more reliable than the Jak 40. Damned thing almost caught fire after connecting APU on Brussels airport (IIRC) embarrassing both crew and engineers.

Originally Posted by Geebee

What I still do not understand is how so many high level ranked officials were allowed to fly on the same plane.

The thing is that the other government Tu is currently under repair, the rest of the fleet consist of couple of Jak 40 (one of them was used to transport the press core, the other broke down) and 3 M28 Bryza (which is band new and IMHO awesome, but can carry only 19 passengers)... So as you see there was no real alternative. Except of course chartering a plane, but I think it was considered too expensive...

--
Greetz.
Zathras

[brianw999]

Originally Posted by Alessandro

Polish and Russians has their issues as we all know. Most people are not knowledge of aviation anyways, so inherit the B767s is the best option.

A badly flown B767 that hits trees will crash just the same as a TU154 that is badly flown and hits trees !

[Myndee]

I got this from Fox news, so please take it with a grain of salt:

Air Force Gen. Alexander Alyoshin confirmed that the pilot disregarded instructions to fly to another airfield.
"At a distance of 1.5 kilometers [0.9 miles] the air traffic control group discovered the crew had accelerated its downward descent and begun descending beneath its glide path," Alyoshin told Russian news agencies.
"The head of the group ordered the crew to return to horizontal [COLOR=blue ! important][COLOR=blue ! important]flight[/color], and when the crew did not fulfill the instruction, ordered them several times to land at another airport," Alyoshin said.[/color]
"Nonetheless the crew continued to descend. Unfortunately this ended tragically."
He added that the pilot makes the final decision about whether to land.


If this is true, I regard it as suspicious. In fact, I don't believe it. Why would a seasoned military pilot blatantly disregard instructions from the ATC? There must have been some type of mechanical issue that prevented a safe go around. Right?

[zathras]

Originally Posted by Myndee

If this is true, I regard it as suspicious. In fact, I don't believe it. Why would a seasoned military pilot blatantly disregard instructions from the ATC? There must have been some type of mechanical issue that prevented a safe go around. Right?

I think the pilot was forced to land by the authorities on board. Remember that there was also air force chief commander present. You don't ignore orders from guy who can make you peel potatoes for the rest of your career. Also remember that going to other airport would mean that all aboard would skip the ceremony they were going to. My guess is that the president was so desperate to get on place on time that he forced the issue - either directly or via the AF commander. That wouldn't be the first time (vide the Tibilisi incident mentioned earlier). But that's only a hunch...

--
Greetz.
Zathras