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Malaysia Airlines Loses Contact With 777 en Route to Beijing

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  • Originally posted by BoeingBobby View Post
    I have held back here because in my opinion, something is very fishy here.
    I wonder what makes you think so.

    Originally posted by AvHerald
    On Mar 11th 2014 Malaysia's Air Force reported their primary radar data suggest, the aircraft may have turned west over the Gulf of Thailand at about 1000 meters/3000 feet below the original flight level (editorial note: another possible interpretation could be: at 1000 meters of height compared to 10000 meters original level) and flown past the east coast near Khota Baru and the west coast of Malaysia near Kedah, the radar return was last seen at 02:40L near Pulau Perak in the Straits of Malacca

    Early Mar 12th 2014 the commander of Malaysia's Air Force stated, he did not make statements about the aircraft being tracked across Malaysia into the Strait of Malacca. The Air Force does not discount the possibility of an air turn back however, as stated in a press conference on Mar 9th 2014.

    On Mar 10th Malaysia expanded the search area into the Strait of Malacca assigning substantial forces to that large search area (much larger than the search area in the Gulf of Thailand with a radius of 100nm around the last known secondary radar position east of Malaysia). It remains unclear why this has been done given the Mar 12th denials of reports of Mar 11th that the aircraft may have been tracked by primary radar into the Strait of Malacca explaining that widened search. It also remains unclear why on Mar 12th the search is now moving northwest into the Andaman Sea west of Malaysia, especially when there are/were no indications of the aircraft turning back as Malaysia officials told families in Beijing on Mar 12th.

    --- Judge what is said by the merits of what is said, not by the credentials of who said it. ---
    --- Defend what you say with arguments, not by imposing your credentials ---

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    • Originally posted by eTang View Post
      concering the cell-phones:

      wouldn't it make sense that the authorities would call and trace any available passenger cell-phone? even if they do not believe in this possibility: better then not trying, I'd say. Though modern 'smart'phone would be out of battery by now, I fear ...
      There was a short window of opportunity there IF vetted. If the phones indeed were still ringing AND it is not a case of the phones having been left behind or forgotten, then it would mean:
      1) The plane did not crash or the phone somehow survived the crash
      2) The plane did not crash in water or
      3) The plane did crash but the person(s) are floating somewhere in rafts. But because of no wreckage, improbable.

      But yes, I have to concur with you that that window opportunity had passed, and I don't see anyone jumping at the opportunity when it existed... so bygones and probably a red herring.

      All it tells, IF true, is that he plane ducked beneath radar visuals somehow very suddenly and continued to fly to an unknown location over land. who knows?

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      • CNN: Could a meteor have hit Flight 370

        Here is a theory that hasn't been postulated yet!!

        CNN’s Pamela Brown reports on the newest conspiracy theories floating around about missing Malaysia Airlines Flight 370.

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        • This is from today's New York Times:

          The last radar return was 200 miles northwest of the Malaysian island of Penang, General Rodzali said, putting the plane in the eastern approaches of the Indian Ocean. He said the data suggested that the aircraft was flying at “flight level 295,” which in aeronautical jargon translates as 29,500 feet.
          Except...

          Except for the air turn-back, there is no new development,” Tengku Sariffuddin Tengku Ahmad, spokesman for the prime minister’s office, adding that the reported remarks by the air force chief were “not true.”
          Who to believe? The head of the air force or the head of government? This IS a banana republic.

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          • News

            Sorry turns out the news about the floating body was bogus.

            Also you're right, that does look like a boat life raft....so maybe we're all back to square one....

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            • Do Ships stick to Shipping Lanes as much as Aircraft stick to their Air Lanes? Or do they just take the shortest route?

              If the Authorities have no idea where to look (which appears feasible) then the most likely way the wreckage will be discovered may be a passing ship. But if they are usually confined to designated lanes it could be a long time before anyone goes near the debris.

              The other thing that occurred to me is if there was a Rogue Pilot or Hijacker that turned the Aircraft onto another course they picked a good time to do it - when the Aircraft was being handed over from one Countries Airpspace to another. Bound to create a bit of confusion for a while re which Airspace the Aircraft is in.

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              • Originally posted by tsv View Post
                Do Ships stick to Shipping Lanes as much as Aircraft stick tto heir Air Lanes? Or do they just take the shortest route?

                If the Authorities have no idea where to look (which appears feasible) then the most likely was the wreckage will be discovered may be a passing ship. But if they are usually confined to designated lanes it could be a long time anyone goes near the debris.

                The other thing that occurred to me is if there was a Rogue Pilot or Hijacker that turned the Aircraft onto another course they picked a good time to do it - when the Aircraft was being handed over from one Countries Airpspace to another. Bound to create a bit of confusion for a while re which Airspace the Aircraft is in.
                Usually ships take the shortest route, but Mallaca Strait is one of the busiest shipping passages in the world, with huge tankers and container vessels equipped with very sophisticated radars sailing by. It would be very easy for a ship to spot debris in that area, or even a low flying a/c.

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                • From CNN: "According to a senior Malaysian Air Force official, radar tracking shows MH370's last known location was over the very small island of Pulau Perak in the Strait of Malacca. This is hundreds of miles from the flight path from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing. At this time, civilian and military radar lost all contact with the aircraft. If this data is correct, the aircraft was flying in the opposite direction from its scheduled destination and on the opposite side of the Malay Peninsula from its scheduled route."
                  - I had to frown at the word "official". We have no reliable radar source to trust at the moment.
                  - The plane must be on the island?

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                  • Originally posted by James Bond View Post

                    I wonder what the Indonesian military has to say about this incident. Did they track it too? We have an aircraft flying drastically off course with its transponders off reminiscent of the 9-11 hijackings and approaching Indonesian airspace, I can't see how they were not aware of the situation.

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                    • Originally posted by avherald
                      Early Mar 12th 2014 the commander of Malaysia's Air Force stated, he did not make statements about the aircraft being tracked across Malaysia into the Strait of Malacca. The Air Force does not discount the possibility of an air turn back however, as stated in a press conference on Mar 9th 2014.
                      i.e.: we're not saying it did, but we're not saying it didn't. Just we didn't tell you ...

                      Also the avherald article has apparently expanded again:
                      In the evening of Mar 12th 2014 the commander of Malaysia's Air Force confirmed in a televised news conference, that an unidentified radar target was picked up at FL295 about 200nm northwest of Penang (Malaysia) (editorial note: this translates to just off the coast of Phuket (Thailand) in the Andaman Sea). As the primary radar does not identify which aircraft produced the return (other than secondary radar identifying the aircraft via the aircraft's transponder), it is not clear whether that unidentified target was MH-370. This radar observation however prompted Malaysia's Authorities to expand the search into the Strait of Malacca and Andaman Sea.
                      which if I'm reading rightly isn't saying that they tracked it from losing radio contact back heading West across Malaysia and out in the direction of India - which is what I had certainly inferred from half-rumours, but just that they had an unidentified radar signal that wasn't transmitting a transponder code at the outer limits of radar range which may or may not have been MH370. OK, that at least partly explains the backtracking on what they did or didn't see, but why they were searching that direction.

                      And I'd guess the uncertainty as to what they had or hadn't seen was why they hadn't said anything definitive on this, at least until rumours or misquotes started getting mentioned in the media.

                      Speculation: If it WAS MH370, then it sounds like it had been not flying directly west, but up in an arc around the top of Malaysia, almost staying out of radar range, which would be very unlikely then to be incapacitated crew. How long would it take to fly that arc - would it fit with the radar sighting that was apparently 1hr10 after last contact? Is it more likely that it was just another plane?

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                      • Originally posted by starchyme View Post
                        From CNN: "According to a senior Malaysian Air Force official, radar tracking shows MH370's last known location was over the very small island of Pulau Perak in the Strait of Malacca. This is hundreds of miles from the flight path from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing. At this time, civilian and military radar lost all contact with the aircraft. If this data is correct, the aircraft was flying in the opposite direction from its scheduled destination and on the opposite side of the Malay Peninsula from its scheduled route."
                        - I had to frown at the word "official". We have no reliable radar source to trust at the moment.
                        - The plane must be on the island?
                        Pulau Perak is not but a big steep rock in the ocean. But if the plane´s last position was close to this tiny island, it did fly right over Langkawi International Airport.

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                        • Originally posted by BlueMax View Post
                          Here is a theory that hasn't been postulated yet!!

                          http://www.cnn.com/video/data/2.0/vi...ories.cnn.html
                          Unlikely.

                          But on the other hand: Sooner or later it will inevitably happen - and still appear extremely unlikely...

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                          • So, looking for radar coverage, I came across this ICAO publication - page 6 has a good indication of radar coverage... Not much escaping that one...

                            http://www.icao.int/APAC/Meetings/2011_bbacg21/WP13.pdf

                            This is older and I didn't have a chance to read the entire PDF, but...

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                            • Well - I must admit that this whole affair has me completely baffled.

                              Anybody - please correct me if I am wrong: The only thing known for certain is that contact was lost with MH370 about halfway between Kuala Lumpur and Ho Chi Minh City. There were no other radar returns (either primary or SSR) in the proximity of the aircraft when it disappeared.
                              As far as speculation goes: according to military primary radar the aircraft MAY have turned off course, but the source does not state anything about direction, new heading and speed, and position where primary radar contact was lost (all that being information that would be available from primary radar).
                              Beyond that? Nothing...
                              Last edited by Peter Kesternich; 2014-03-12, 16:26.

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                              • Just one word: fishy.

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