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Polish President and wife killed in Tu-154 crash

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  • Wasn't the plane actually below the runway threshold? I thought that the "factory complex" and woodlot were below the elevated runway.
    Live, from a grassy knoll somewhere near you.

    Comment


    • Originally posted by guamainiac View Post
      Wasn't the plane actually below the runway threshold? I thought that the "factory complex" and woodlot were below the elevated runway.
      The lowest reading on the PIC baro altimeter shows 568' which equals 5.12m above the RWY (568'=173.12m 173.12m-168m=5.12m). The baro altimeter next to the PIC one shows values in meters and it is set exactly between 0 and 10m. The plane was never below the RWY elevation.

      The RWY reference point is at 255m, the ground at the birch is about 6.9m below that.

      Comment


      • Originally posted by Northwester View Post
        The lowest reading on the PIC baro altimeter shows 568' which equals 5.12m above the RWY (568'=173.12m 173.12m-168m=5.12m). The baro altimeter next to the PIC one shows values in meters and it is set exactly between 0 and 10m. The plane was never below the RWY elevation.

        (...)
        Please answer the question: Why was the plane so low on a non-precision approach without the runway in sight?

        Comment


        • Originally posted by Peter Kesternich View Post
          Please answer the question: Why was the plane so low on a non-precision approach without the runway in sight?
          Because the pilots were idiots, they were not trained at all, a drunk general was trying to grab the controls, actually even the pilots were drinking and playing cards during the final approach, the PIC had a tunnel vision and was stuck counting sheep instead of making rational decisions, the president moved too close to the cockpit and his sole presence caused the nose to tilt down, they put too much fuel in the front part of the plane (you know those 1 gallon jugs that can be stored all around cockpit), and a dozen of other reasons of equal quality.

          The fact is that no one knows and there was no serious attempt in any of the reports to try to figure it out. We know now that the automatic GA was supposed to work. We know they were not trying to land. Maybe the scientific conference in Poland in October will provide some answers, but for right let's blame the pilots. They are dead afterall.

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Northwester View Post
            First of all, the closest to the RWY the more accurate are the readings of the baro altimeter.
            No.

            --- Judge what is said by the merits of what is said, not by the credentials of who said it. ---
            --- Defend what you say with arguments, not by imposing your credentials ---

            Comment


            • Originally posted by Northwester View Post
              The fact is that no one knows and there was no serious attempt in any of the reports to try to figure it out.
              Oh no, of course not. Except...

              There was this one whimsical attempt by a Polish hobbyist organization called uh, let... me... think... oh yeah, the Committee for Investigation of National Aviation Accidents who probably just measured photos they found on the internet and donned their tin foil hats to come up with this crazy, unserious stuff:
              Circumstances Contributing to the Accident

              1) Failure to monitor altitude by means of a pressure altimeter during a non-precision approach;
              2) failure by the crew to respond to the PULL UP warning generated by the TAWS;
              3) attempt to execute the go-around maneuver under the control of ABSU (automatic go-around);
              4) Approach Control confirming to the crew the correct position of the airplane in relation to the RWY threshold, glide slope, and course which might have affirmed the crew's belief that the approach was proceeding correctly although the airplane was actually outside the permissible deviation margin;
              5) failure by landing zone controller (LZC)to inform the crew about descending below the glide slope and delayed issuance of the level-out command;
              6) incorrect training of the Tu-154M flight crews in the 36 Regiment.

              3.2.3. Conducive circumstances

              1) incorrect coordination of the crew's work, which placed an excessive burden on the aircraft commander in the final phase of the flight;
              2) insufficient flight preparation of the crew;
              3) the crew‘s insufficient knowledge of the airplane's systems and their limitations;
              4) inadequate cross-monitoring among the crew members and failure to respond to the mistakes committed;
              5) crew composition inadequate for the task;
              6) ineffective immediate supervision of the 36 Regiment's flight training process by the Air Force Command;
              7) failure by the 36 Regiment to develop procedures governing the crew's actions in the event of:
              a) failure to meet the established approach criteria;
              b) using radio altimeter for establishing alarm altitude values for various types of approach;
              c) distribution of duties in a multi-crew flight.
              8 ) sporadic performance of flight support duties by LZC over the last 12 months, in particular under difficult Weather Conditions, and lack of practical experience as LZC at the SMOLENSK NORTH airfield.

              As if this could cause a crash! Ha! What a bunch of morons, eh?

              but for right let's blame the pilots. They are dead afterall.
              Yeah! For right now (and forever) lets just blame the Russians. They are foreigners afterall.

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Northwester View Post
                Because the pilots were idiots, they were not trained at all, a drunk general was trying to grab the controls, actually even the pilots were drinking and playing cards during the final approach, the PIC had a tunnel vision and was stuck counting sheep instead of making rational decisions, the president moved too close to the cockpit and his sole presence caused the nose to tilt down, they put too much fuel in the front part of the plane (you know those 1 gallon jugs that can be stored all around cockpit), and a dozen of other reasons of equal quality.

                The fact is that no one knows and there was no serious attempt in any of the reports to try to figure it out. We know now that the automatic GA was supposed to work. We know they were not trying to land. Maybe the scientific conference in Poland in October will provide some answers, but for right let's blame the pilots. They are dead afterall.
                Note that when confronted with a straightforward big-picture question about this accident that appeals to reason and common sense, where he cannot throw up a smokescreen using all of the accoutrements of a conspiracy theorist such as fabricated tree damage, tapped phones and and stolen evidence, Northwester becomes defensive, sarcastic, and basically unintelligible.

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Northwester View Post
                  (...) but for right let's blame the pilots. They are dead afterall.
                  Being dead shouldn't protect anybody from being blamed. Sometimes, people make mistakes that result in their own death.

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by Northwester View Post
                    The fact is that no one knows and there was no serious attempt in any of the reports to try to figure it out. We know now that the automatic GA was supposed to work. We know they were not trying to land. Maybe the scientific conference in Poland in October will provide some answers, but for right let's blame the pilots. They are dead afterall.
                    We know that they didn't know that the GA was supposed to work (and I'm not sure yet that it does reliably work), we know that it was not allowed, we know and they knew that the landing was impossible to start with, we know they were way below the minimums even when the explosions in the Bineda hypothesis took place, we know that from the 4 crew members, 3 (including the Captain and the FO) didn't meet the minimum requirements to be in the position they were appointed, and none of them had experience or training in a 4 members crew, we know that the management of this flying wing was a mess, with poor training, lack of procedures and lack of updated manuals.

                    Blame the crew? Maybe, a bit. They were the last link. I blame all the chain of command from the crew through the generals and ending with he President. Many of them, as you've said, are dead after all.

                    This is a paraphrased version of the CVR:

                    Pilot: Tower, say weather conditions.
                    Tower: Visibility is crap, ceiling is shit.
                    Pilot: Tower, say the weather conditions.
                    Tower: Visibility is crap, ceiling is shit.
                    Pilot: Come on, the full weather conditions.
                    Tower: What else do you need? What I told you is enough "CONDITIONS ARE NOT SUITABLE FOR LANDING" (that part is textual)
                    Pilot: We want to try.
                    Tower: Ok, if you insist. Visibility is crap, ceiling is shit, there's little wind whatsoever and the pressure is xxxx.
                    Yak: The tower is not cheating. The ceiling here is shit. We managed to land, at the last second we saw the runway, barely, so I guess you can try once.
                    Pilot: Ok crew, this is what we are going to do. The conditions down there are crap, there's no way we will land, but we cannot go out and say just that to the President, you know he has the tendency to get mad and I don't want to be called a chicken. So we'll do the approach, a crappy non-precision NDB to a crappy Russian military airfield that we are not familiar with. We'll show him that we have courage to try it with all the odds against us and we'll say that, because there's no choice, we had no choice but to go around, he has to understand that you cannot land in a runway that is not visible. He will still get mad, but perhaps he will not call us chicken. At 100m we'll go around, because that's what we'll do for sure. And we'll go around on autopilot. It is not allowed in the manuals but we don't know that because we don't read them very often after all, we know it's not funny to read manuals that are not updated and are written in a foreign language. But it looks that it might work after all. of course we don't know that either because the first tests will be done after our crash. Oh, and by the way, after the go-around we don't have a plan because the president says that he really needs to get to this celebration and he really doesn't know what to do if we fail at our attempt which, as I've just said, we'll do. By the way, we know airlines have policies against attempting approaches below certain conditions, about sterile cockpit, and about a stabilized approach. But we are not an airline, just a presidential flying wing, so we'll ignore all that crap. Landing briefing complete.
                    Navigator: Outer marker.
                    Captain: Outer marker already? Shit, we are too high and we didn't even started to descend yet. Push it down. No matter that that will put us in a too steep descent, with an increased closure rate with the ground, and with reduced power, all of which will make even more difficult an already complicated go-around.
                    Yak: Weather update for you. The ceiling has changed from shit to diarrhea. We are almost in the clouds now.
                    Captain: No matter, from our go-around altitude the view out of the window would have been already nill with the previous condition, so this is no worse than before.
                    TAWS: Sink rate. Terrain ahead. Woop Woop pull up. What are you fucking doing? I've said Woop Woop...
                    Captain: Shut up bastard! (resets the altimeter to 1013.3). This fucking TAWS, always crying that the sky is falling.
                    Tower: Remember to go around at 100m.
                    Captain: Yes, yes, we will.
                    Navigator: 100m
                    Navigator: 100m
                    Navigator: For God sake and for the third time, 100m!
                    FO: Go around?
                    Navigator: 90, 80, 70
                    Captain: Ok, let's go around, just let me press this button...
                    TAWS: TERRAIN TERRAIN, PULL UP PULL UP, TREES TREES, CRASH CRASH!!!
                    Navigator: 60, 50, 40
                    Captain: Why isn't this working? Ok, let's pull back a bit on the column (but the AP still trying to descend compensates with more nose-down trim).
                    TAWS: TERRAIN TERRAIN, PULL UP PULL UP, TREES TREES, CRASH CRASH!!!
                    Navigator: 30, 20, 10 (I wonder what altimeter am I reading since we never got this low)
                    FO: Trees ahead! Not only that, but they are already cut as if we had flown through them!
                    TAWS: TERRAIN TERRAIN, PULL UP PULL UP, TREES TREES, CRASH CRASH!!!
                    Captain: Motherfucker. AP off, AT off, let's pull up as if we wanted to stall this plane!
                    FO: Incoming missiles, two of them, 12 o-clock!
                    Cockpit sound: Sound of explosion in the wing. Sound of explosion in the fuselage.
                    Captain: Motherfuckeeeeeerrrssssss!!!!! And just when we were about to crash by ourselveeeeeeessssssss!!!!!

                    --- Judge what is said by the merits of what is said, not by the credentials of who said it. ---
                    --- Defend what you say with arguments, not by imposing your credentials ---

                    Comment


                    • Quite a bit of effort went into that, Gabriel, right? And don't try to tell us you didn't enjoy writing that

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Gabriel View Post
                        We know that they didn't know that the GA was supposed to work (and I'm not sure yet that it does reliably work), we know that it was not allowed, we know and they knew that the landing was impossible to start with, we know they were way below the minimums even when the explosions in the Bineda hypothesis took place, we know that from the 4 crew members, 3 (including the Captain and the FO) didn't meet the minimum requirements to be in the position they were appointed, and none of them had experience or training in a 4 members crew, we know that the management of this flying wing was a mess, with poor training, lack of procedures and lack of updated manuals.

                        Blame the crew? Maybe, a bit. They were the last link. I blame all the chain of command from the crew through the generals and ending with he President. Many of them, as you've said, are dead after all.

                        This is a paraphrased version of the CVR:

                        Pilot: Tower, say weather conditions.
                        Tower: Visibility is crap, ceiling is shit.
                        Pilot: Tower, say the weather conditions.
                        Tower: Visibility is crap, ceiling is shit.
                        Pilot: Come on, the full weather conditions.
                        Tower: What else do you need? What I told you is enough "CONDITIONS ARE NOT SUITABLE FOR LANDING" (that part is textual)
                        Pilot: We want to try.
                        Tower: Ok, if you insist. Visibility is crap, ceiling is shit, there's little wind whatsoever and the pressure is xxxx.
                        Yak: The tower is not cheating. The ceiling here is shit. We managed to land, at the last second we saw the runway, barely, so I guess you can try once.
                        Pilot: Ok crew, this is what we are going to do. The conditions down there are crap, there's no way we will land, but we cannot go out and say just that to the President, you know he has the tendency to get mad and I don't want to be called a chicken. So we'll do the approach, a crappy non-precision NDB to a crappy Russian military airfield that we are not familiar with. We'll show him that we have courage to try it with all the odds against us and we'll say that, because there's no choice, we had no choice but to go around, he has to understand that you cannot land in a runway that is not visible. He will still get mad, but perhaps he will not call us chicken. At 100m we'll go around, because that's what we'll do for sure. And we'll go around on autopilot. It is not allowed in the manuals but we don't know that because we don't read them very often after all, we know it's not funny to read manuals that are not updated and are written in a foreign language. But it looks that it might work after all. of course we don't know that either because the first tests will be done after our crash. Oh, and by the way, after the go-around we don't have a plan because the president says that he really needs to get to this celebration and he really doesn't know what to do if we fail at our attempt which, as I've just said, we'll do. By the way, we know airlines have policies against attempting approaches below certain conditions, about sterile cockpit, and about a stabilized approach. But we are not an airline, just a presidential flying wing, so we'll ignore all that crap. Landing briefing complete.
                        Navigator: Outer marker.
                        Captain: Outer marker already? Shit, we are too high and we didn't even started to descend yet. Push it down. No matter that that will put us in a too steep descent, with an increased closure rate with the ground, and with reduced power, all of which will make even more difficult an already complicated go-around.
                        Yak: Weather update for you. The ceiling has changed from shit to diarrhea. We are almost in the clouds now.
                        Captain: No matter, from our go-around altitude the view out of the window would have been already nill with the previous condition, so this is no worse than before.
                        TAWS: Sink rate. Terrain ahead. Woop Woop pull up. What are you fucking doing? I've said Woop Woop...
                        Captain: Shut up bastard! (resets the altimeter to 1013.3). This fucking TAWS, always crying that the sky is falling.
                        Tower: Remember to go around at 100m.
                        Captain: Yes, yes, we will.
                        Navigator: 100m
                        Navigator: 100m
                        Navigator: For God sake and for the third time, 100m!
                        FO: Go around?
                        Navigator: 90, 80, 70
                        Captain: Ok, let's go around, just let me press this button...
                        TAWS: TERRAIN TERRAIN, PULL UP PULL UP, TREES TREES, CRASH CRASH!!!
                        Navigator: 60, 50, 40
                        Captain: Why isn't this working? Ok, let's pull back a bit on the column (but the AP still trying to descend compensates with more nose-down trim).
                        TAWS: TERRAIN TERRAIN, PULL UP PULL UP, TREES TREES, CRASH CRASH!!!
                        Navigator: 30, 20, 10 (I wonder what altimeter am I reading since we never got this low)
                        FO: Trees ahead! Not only that, but they are already cut as if we had flown through them!
                        TAWS: TERRAIN TERRAIN, PULL UP PULL UP, TREES TREES, CRASH CRASH!!!
                        Captain: Motherfucker. AP off, AT off, let's pull up as if we wanted to stall this plane!
                        FO: Incoming missiles, two of them, 12 o-clock!
                        Cockpit sound: Sound of explosion in the wing. Sound of explosion in the fuselage.
                        Captain: Motherfuckeeeeeerrrssssss!!!!! And just when we were about to crash by ourselveeeeeeessssssss!!!!!
                        I have already one of your posts saved. I would like to save this one too, with your permission. One of us will have a lot of fun re-reading it sometime in the future.

                        Comment


                        • Joy and fun? Rather anger and rage.

                          --- Judge what is said by the merits of what is said, not by the credentials of who said it. ---
                          --- Defend what you say with arguments, not by imposing your credentials ---

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Gabriel View Post
                            Joy and fun? Rather anger and rage.
                            Fun was the wrong word. A quiet satisfaction that at the end the truth will come out.

                            Comment


                            • Now some interesting parts of the real (or at least official) CVR:

                              Conversation between the captain and the ATC:

                              Captain: Korsaż-Start, Polish 101, good morning.
                              ATC: Polish 1-0-1 Korsaż.
                              Captain: For outer marker, descending to 3600 meters.
                              ATC: Polish Foxtrot 1-0-1, remaining fuel, how much fuel do you have?
                              Captain: 11 tonnes remaining.
                              ATC: What alternate airport do you have designated?
                              Captain: Witebsk, Mińsk.
                              ATC: PLF 1-2-0-1, at Korsaż fog, visibility 400 meters [the minimums were 1000m]
                              Captain: Understood, please give me meteo.
                              ATC: At Korsaż fog, visibility 400 meters, 4-0-0 meters.
                              Captain: Temperature and pressure, please.
                              ATC: Temperature plus 2, pressure 7-45, 7-4-5, there are no conditions for landing.
                              Captain: Thank you, but if we can, we would like to try approach, but if not , there will be no weather, we will leave for a go around.
                              ATC: After the trial approach will you have enough fuel to fly to the alternate?
                              Captain: Enough.

                              At the same time, this conversation was taking place between the FO and the Yak crew that had landed earlier:

                              FO: Artur, I am here.
                              Yak: Hi, welcome. Generally speaking it is a bitch down here. Visibility about 400 meters [minimums was 1000] and in our opinion clouds are well below 50 meters [minimums was 100].
                              FO: Have you landed yet?
                              Yak: Well, yes we managed in the last moment. Honestly, you can try by all means. Two APMs are there, they set a gate, so you can try, but… If you will not be able to make it the second time, then I suggest you fly to Moscow for example or somewhere.
                              FO: OK, I get it over to Arek, bye.
                              Yak: So long.

                              Then the FO informs the captain:

                              FO: Arek, Artur is there. In their opinion about 400 visibility, clouds base 50 meters.
                              Captain: How much?
                              FO: 400 visibility, clouds base 50 meters.
                              Captain: But he landed. What is he saying?
                              FO: Yes, they made it. He said only that if we don't land the second time, than - he is saying, to Moscow.

                              Then the Captain relies this info for the president:

                              Captain: Mr. director - fog came out, right now in these conditions, that we have at present we will not be able to land. We will try to approach, we will make one pass, but probably nothing will come out of it. So please think about decision on what we will do then.
                              Response (unidentified): Then we have a problem.
                              Captain: We can circle for half an hour an fly to backup.
                              Response: Where is backup?
                              Captain: Minsk or Witebsk.

                              Then the captain instructs the FO to get more info from the Yak crew:

                              Captain: Ask Artur, if these clouds are thick.
                              FO: I do not know, if they will still be, I mean if they will still be. OK, I will switch.
                              FO: Artur, are you still there?
                              Yak: I am here, Remek.
                              FO: And, Remuś, ask Artur, and maybe you know, are these clouds thick?
                              (unintelligible answer)
                              FO: How much?
                              Yak: About 400-500 meters
                              Navigator: Have you heard Arek?
                              Captain: No.
                              Navigator: About 400-500 meters
                              FO: But is it thickness
                              Navigator: Well, yes.
                              Yak: Are you there?
                              FO: But the thickness of these clouds, 400-500 meters?
                              Yak: As far as we can remember, at 500 meters we were still above the clouds.
                              FO: Aha. At 500 meters above the clouds. OK, OK. Thanks.

                              There was another plane, a Russian one, that was also bound for the same airport. The captain wants to know what happened with them:

                              Captain: Ask if Russians have arrived yet.
                              FO: Have Russians arrived yet?
                              Yak: IL went around twice, and I think they left somewhere.
                              FO: I understand, thanks.
                              FO: Did you hear?
                              Captain: Yes.

                              Then again the unidentified voice:
                              "So far there is no decision from the President on what we do next."

                              Then there was the "famous" instruction:
                              Captain: Landing course. In case of unsuccessful approach we will depart on autopilot.
                              FO: On autopilot.

                              As they were turning to final, there was a reminder from ATC:

                              ATC: Polish 101 and from 100 meters be prepared to go around.
                              Captain: Yes exactly.

                              Then someone that doesn't belong thee enters the cockpit, on final approach in IMC!!!

                              (Unidentified): Welcome, welcome.
                              Flight Engineer: Good Morning.
                              Captain: Welcome.

                              Then the Yak crew reports that conditions are worsening:

                              Yak: Arek, now the visibility is 200. [again, minimums was 1000]
                              FO: Oh fuck. Look.

                              The last part speaks for itself:

                              Navigator: 200.
                              TAWS: TERRAIN AHEAD
                              Navigator: 150.
                              TAWS: TERRAIN AHEAD, TERRAIN AHEAD
                              Navigator: 100 meters.
                              TAWS: PULL UP, PULL UP, PULL UP, PULL UP
                              TAWS: TERRAIN AHEAD
                              (Unidentified): You can't see a thing.
                              TAWS: TERRAIN AHEAD
                              Navigator: 100
                              TAWS: TERRAIN AHEAD
                              Captain: Go around.
                              navigator: 100, 90, 80
                              TAWS: PULL UP
                              FO: Go around.
                              Navigator: 70, 60, 50
                              TAWS: PULL UP, PULL UP
                              ATC: Level off 101
                              Navigator: 40
                              ATC: Level off 101
                              TAWS: PULL UP, PULL UP, PULL UP
                              Navigator: 30
                              ATC: Control altitude and level off
                              TAWS: PULL UP
                              Navigator: 20
                              Sound of the inner marker
                              TAWS: PULL UP, PULL UP, PULL UP
                              TAWS: PULL UP, PULL UP, PULL UP
                              (Unidentified): Fuck
                              ATC: Go around
                              TAWS: PULL UP, PULL UP
                              Scream
                              END

                              --- Judge what is said by the merits of what is said, not by the credentials of who said it. ---
                              --- Defend what you say with arguments, not by imposing your credentials ---

                              Comment


                              • That was a brilliant summarization Gabriel, and a fine and fitting epilogue to this thread. Now hopefully Brian will quietly shut it down, entomb it under several meters of concrete in a lead-lined container, where it will join the souls of the departed as a respectful monument, with only the inscription, "Here lies the destiny of presidential arrogance. May it stand forever as a lesson to the folly of leadership without respect for professional authority."

                                Of course we invite Northwester to open a new thread revealing the truth of these events, but only when and if any actual, as opposed to speculative, evidence should present itself, at which time we expect him to state in clear terms what he has determined to have actually transpired here. Knowing the truth is all that concerns us.

                                Or, barring that, no more will he poke the stick of conspiracy into the embers of this tragedy.

                                This thread, which deals with the crash, the subsequent investigations and the findings of those investigations, has exhausted itself. We need to put a lid on it if it is to have any value for future research.

                                Comment

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