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  • #46
    Another reason is that the A380 came first, and Airbus started receiving orders for it, what, 3 years before it was even known that there would ever be a next 747? And then, if you really wanted one big plane, the A380 would have been available much earlier than the 747-8 (it was supposed to be available much earlier that it finally was, but airlines didn't know that)

    When a new durable product cover an unattended but limited niche, it tends to sell a lot early in its life cycle. In those cases, the innovator (the first to offer the product) tends to win a great advantage over the competition.

    Very likely there were cases where the airline would have considered whether to buy a 747-8 or an A380, except that there was no 747-8 to consider and, it top of that, Boeing was strong dropping "enlarged" 747 projects one after the other and claiming that there was no market for the super-jumbo airplanes.

    By when the 747-8 came into the game, most of the currently served and pending orders for the A380 were already put, so most airlines that could have considered the 747-8 were already engaged with he A380.

    I'd like to know how many orders for the A380 and for the 747-8 were put after Boeing started taking orders for the 747-8.

    The above is for the passenger versions. For the cargo version the situation is different because the 747-8F has no competition.

    --- Judge what is said by the merits of what is said, not by the credentials of who said it. ---
    --- Defend what you say with arguments, not by imposing your credentials ---

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    • #47
      The 747 has cross subsidized other Boeing products for so long, time for the others like the 767 to stick out their neck for the old lady...
      "The real CEO of the 787 project is named Potemkin"

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      • #48
        Originally posted by Peter Kesternich View Post
        That's something I would definitely agree with.



        Hmmmmm... I'd say it's more than a bandaid...
        A380 - launched in 2000 - orders: 257
        747-8 - launched in 2005 - orders: 106
        Doesn't look so bad to me
        thats 257 Passenger version's for the A380,take out the cargo version of the 747-8i and its only : 36

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        • #49
          Originally posted by larsv View Post
          thats 257 Passenger version's for the A380,take out the cargo version of the 747-8i and its only : 36
          The 747-8I and -8F are only two different versions of the same airplane, so in my opinion, they should both be counted. After all, the production number for the 747-400 also includes the cargo variants, doesn't it?

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          • #50
            Originally posted by Peter Kesternich View Post
            The 747-8I and -8F are only two different versions of the same airplane, so in my opinion, they should both be counted. After all, the production number for the 747-400 also includes the cargo variants, doesn't it?
            Okay, but I think that it is also valid to compare sales in each segment.

            In the freight version the 747-8F is the clear winner simply because there is no A380F.

            In the passenger versions, the A380 is the clear winner because????
            I think that a point was its earlier appearance.
            Both claim having a lower cost per seat/mile, so I don't know there how it works.

            --- Judge what is said by the merits of what is said, not by the credentials of who said it. ---
            --- Defend what you say with arguments, not by imposing your credentials ---

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            • #51
              Originally posted by Gabriel View Post
              In the passenger versions, the A380 is the clear winner because????
              I think that a point was its earlier appearance.
              Both claim having a lower cost per seat/mile, so I don't know there how it works.
              As I've said before, Boeing's claim is nonsense and the lack of sales shows it.
              A bigger plane is more expensive in acquisition, insurance, operating costs and so on. It's a higher operational risk because if you cannot fill it, you're losing more money than with a smaller plane. This higher operational risk has to be offset by lower operating costs per passenger and the capacity for higher profits.
              If the 747-8I had lower operating costs per passenger than the A380, all of the A380's reasons to exist would go away. There wouldnt be a single reason for any airline to operate A380's. You could move passengers for less money, with less risk in a 747-8I. The A380 would be dead and ALL the A380 sales since the 747-8 came out should have gone to the 747-8, which they didnt.

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              • #52
                Originally posted by Taliesin View Post
                As I've said before, Boeing's claim is nonsense and the lack of sales shows it.
                A bigger plane is more expensive in acquisition, insurance, operating costs and so on. It's a higher operational risk because if you cannot fill it, you're losing more money than with a smaller plane. This higher operational risk has to be offset by lower operating costs per passenger and the capacity for higher profits.
                If the 747-8I had lower operating costs per passenger than the A380, all of the A380's reasons to exist would go away. There wouldnt be a single reason for any airline to operate A380's. You could move passengers for less money, with less risk in a 747-8I. The A380 would be dead and ALL the A380 sales since the 747-8 came out should have gone to the 747-8, which they didnt.
                It's not that simple.

                First, you'd loose a lot of money by cancelling an order, and in some cases the A380 was bought in a "combo" with other Airbus at discounted prices.

                Then, if with the 747-8 you are going to leave 150 passengers off the plane in each trip, then you'll be loosing a lot of money even if it was true that the 747-8 has a lower cost per maile-seat.

                --- Judge what is said by the merits of what is said, not by the credentials of who said it. ---
                --- Defend what you say with arguments, not by imposing your credentials ---

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                • #53
                  Originally posted by Taliesin View Post
                  (...)
                  A bigger plane is more expensive in acquisition, insurance, operating costs and so on. It's a higher operational risk because if you cannot fill it, you're losing more money than with a smaller plane. This higher operational risk has to be offset by lower operating costs per passenger and the capacity for higher profits.
                  If the 747-8I had lower operating costs per passenger than the A380, all of the A380's reasons to exist would go away. There wouldnt be a single reason for any airline to operate A380's. You could move passengers for less money, with less risk in a 747-8I. The A380 would be dead and ALL the A380 sales since the 747-8 came out should have gone to the 747-8, which they didnt.
                  I'd also say it's not that simple.

                  Imagine an airline where the A380 has 500 seats and an airline where the A380 has 600 seats. What happens if both of them carry 500 passengers? One airline makes money and the other one loses money on that trip? Why? Or why not?
                  Or imagine an A380 with 500 seats and a 747-8I with 500 seats. If both use the same number of crew (and if you don't factor in buying and insuring the aircraft) wouldn't the difference between the cost of the flight not basically boil down to fuel consumption?

                  I must admit that I don't know enough about how operating costs are calculated. Maybe someone with a professional industry background could help the discussion here.

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                  • #54
                    Cost is one thing, possible income the other. A 500 seat A380 vs. a 500 seat 748 offers room for more 1st and biz seats or the same number, but to a much higher standard, which means you could ask a higher price for those seats.

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                    • #55
                      Originally posted by Gabriel View Post
                      First, you'd loose a lot of money by cancelling an order, and in some cases the A380 was bought in a "combo" with other Airbus at discounted prices.
                      I didnt say anything about cancelling orders, I said the A380 would not win any additional orders after the 747-8 was offered.
                      Besides, Boeing could discount the 747-8 in similar ways and throw in similar airplanes. If the A380 can sell this way, why cant the 747-8?
                      Originally posted by Gabriel View Post
                      Then, if with the 747-8 you are going to leave 150 passengers off the plane in each trip, then you'll be loosing a lot of money even if it was true that the 747-8 has a lower cost per maile-seat.
                      You're confusing "losing money" with "making less money". What the 747-8 would allow you to do is transport less passengers for more profit per passenger.
                      Besides, if you transport 150 passengers less, which are the ones you leave behind? The first class pax paying 12.000 dollars or the eco pax paying 400$ for a round trip?
                      Originally posted by Peter Kesternich View Post
                      Imagine an airline where the A380 has 500 seats and an airline where the A380 has 600 seats. What happens if both of them carry 500 passengers? One airline makes money and the other one loses money on that trip? Why? Or why not?
                      That would depend on the layouts. If your 500-pax A380 flies around 100 empty seats then it might be losing money depending on where the empty seats are, or it might still be making money. SIA has an average load factor of 85% on their A380's and they are very happy, so I imagine 100 empty seats (or 20%) are not generally a problem for the A380.
                      Originally posted by Peter Kesternich View Post
                      Or imagine an A380 with 500 seats and a 747-8I with 500 seats. If both use the same number of crew (and if you don't factor in buying and insuring the aircraft) wouldn't the difference between the cost of the flight not basically boil down to fuel consumption?
                      If you put 500 passengers on both an A380 and a 747-8, you are offering a vastly different product that you can sell at vastly different prices, so no, the difference would not boil down to fuel consumption.

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                      • #56
                        Originally posted by Taliesin View Post
                        I didnt say anything about cancelling orders, I said the A380 would not win any additional orders after the 747-8 was offered.
                        This is what I don't know.
                        I'd love to see overlapped timelines of cummulative orders for the A380 and the 747-8. I don't know if the A380 won more orders than the 747-8 that many orders since the first oreder for the 747-8 was put.

                        I think that the 747-8i got 36 orders. Did the A380 won more than that since then?

                        --- Judge what is said by the merits of what is said, not by the credentials of who said it. ---
                        --- Defend what you say with arguments, not by imposing your credentials ---

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                        • #58
                          Yes, I was just checking that and this:


                          In the same time that the B-747-8i won its 36 orders, the A380 won 123 orders (that adds to the 135 orders it had won before). That's a clear preference, I'd say.

                          --- Judge what is said by the merits of what is said, not by the credentials of who said it. ---
                          --- Defend what you say with arguments, not by imposing your credentials ---

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                          • #59
                            I am being a bit of devil's advocate here: how many orders for the A380 are from airlines in the Gulf region, which are government-owned and don't need to watch the money they spend?

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                            • #60
                              Originally posted by Gabriel View Post
                              That's a clear preference, I'd say.
                              Yea it is.
                              Originally posted by Peter Kesternich View Post
                              I am being a bit of devil's advocate here: how many orders for the A380 are from airlines in the Gulf region, which are government-owned and don't need to watch the money they spend?
                              Emirates are highly profitable, but even if not, that still wouldnt explain why they would entirely forego the 747-8I and order 90 A380's instead. With that kind of demand, one would think that simple availability would have driven them towards the 747-8I, but it didnt.

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