B747-8 no future oders?

[Peter Kesternich]

Originally Posted by Taliesin

(...)
Emirates are highly profitable (...)

Says who? With sources please

[seahawk]

Well even without those "Gulf Airlines" there were still over 70 orders for the A380 since 2006.

[Taliesin]

Originally Posted by Peter Kesternich

Says who? With sources please

You can download the financial reports from the Emirates website. Pricewaterhousecoopers have audited Emirates going back to 2001, so I'd say it's legit. They claim 24 years of consecutive profits.

Originally Posted by seahawk

Well even without those "Gulf Airlines" there were still over 70 orders for the A380 since 2006.

So, we're counting freighter variants for the 747-8, but we're not counting A380 orders from "the gulf".
Boy, this is turning into some comparison. I'm all for a healthy bias, but this is getting off track.

[Peter Kesternich]

Originally Posted by Taliesin

(...)So, we're counting freighter variants for the 747-8, but we're not counting A380 orders from "the gulf". (...)

Well, I am all for counting A380 orders from the Gulf region, but I think that the government-subsidized business model of Emirates and the likes inflates the A380 order book.

The reason for counting the 747-8F orders as well is that there are only a few differences in the airframe between the 747-8F and -8I and so the development cost of the -8I could be kept low. So far, Airbus hasn't sold any A380F yet, but it's still on offer. If there ever are any A380F produced, they of course would be part of the A380 order stats as well.

[Gabriel]

Originally Posted by Peter Kesternich

So far, Airbus hasn't sold any A380F yet, but it's still on offer.

Are you sure it's still on offer?
Maybe for far future deliveries.
Several orders for the 380F had been placed but Airbus recalled them as they needed their developement capacity first, and their production capacity then, to honor (sort of) the passenger orders to which Airbus gave priority.

As far as I know, the A380F is not even developed yet and the efforts towards its developement are still frozen where they were left when Airbus recalled the orders, since once the load of engineering work for the A380 diminished, the resources were put on the A350.

[Peter Kesternich]

Before posting I checked the Airbus website and the A380F is still listed on the page for "freighter aircraft".

http://www.airbus.com/aircraftfamilies/freighter/a380f/

[Taliesin]

Originally Posted by Peter Kesternich

Well, I am all for counting A380 orders from the Gulf region, but I think that the government-subsidized business model of Emirates and the likes inflates the A380 order book.

Do you have any source for this claim that you repeat? Do you think Emirates is profitable AND subsidised or do you just throw around words you picked up on the internet?

Originally Posted by Gabriel

As far as I know, the A380F is not even developed yet and the efforts towards its developement are still frozen where they were left when Airbus recalled the orders, since once the load of engineering work for the A380 diminished, the resources were put on the A350.

As big a fan of the A380 as I am, I dont think there will ever be an A380F.
The A380 excels in "fuel burn per passenger / available floor space", but as weird as that might sound, it does not excel in "fuel burn per transported kg payload". A while back in another discussion I thought this was fixable by increasing the payload to 175t and thus having a better ratio of OEW/Payload or TOW/Payload. It turns out that even 175t dont do the trick so Im skeptical anything else would.
The A380 is the best passenger aircraft platform there is, but it's not the best cargo aircraft platform.

I can try and dig up my calculations if anyone is interested.

[Peter Kesternich]

Originally Posted by Taliesin

Do you have any source for this claim that you repeat? Do you think Emirates is profitable AND subsidised or do you just throw around words you picked up on the internet? (...)

This is quoted from the "financial report" published on the Emirates website:

"(...) Emirates was incorporated, with limited liability, by an Emiri Decree (...) and is wholly owned by the Investment Corporation of Dubai, a Government of Dubai entity (...)" p.58
http://www.emirates.com/de/german/im...253-750566.pdf

Since it is not a publicly-owned company, I can believe or doubt whatever they put in their reports. I choose to doubt it, including their claims of profits.

On a broader picture, you might want to google "Dubai bailout" to see that it might not be unreasonable to doubt what's going on in Dubai economically.

[CO777/200]

Air China firms their order for 5 747-8!

http://seattletimes.com/html/busines...ing747xml.html

[Highkeas]

Boeing also has several orders for the 747-VIP using the basic 747-8 airframe. One was delivered green in the last few weeks.

[Gabriel]

Originally Posted by Highkeas

Boeing also has several orders for the 747-VIP using the basic 747-8 airframe. One was delivered green in the last few weeks.

These are included in the oreders count of the 747-8i.

[Taliesin]

Originally Posted by CO777/200

Air China firms their order for 5 747-8!

http://seattletimes.com/html/busines...ing747xml.html

Talking about subsidized, government-owned airlines who dont have to watch their spending..

I think it's interesting that Air China is using all their government leverage to block China Southern from using their A380's on international routes and only allow them to fly internationally with a codeshare, but then they dont buy A380's themselves..
Yay for stupid politics.

[LH-B744]

Originally Posted by Peter Kesternich

Dear LH-B744, the "A333" in my post was an honest typo. I know that Emirates doesn't have the bigger A330 variant in its fleet and I of course meant the A330-200.

Since I am from the Cologne area, I of course consider EDDK my home airport, but with only about an hour's drive away from EDDL, I should tell you that I know my way around that airport perfectly. I fly into and out of EDDL several times a year and go there for plane spotting about twice every year additionally.
However, I think I am definitely knowledgable enough about operations at EDDL to contribute to the discussion here.

[This is not a full quote, as I tried to respect a forum rule "please try to avoid full quotes".]

Yes, somehow I was able to remember your location.

And after I was home with my photos on September 1st, I've learned that EK in fact comes to EDDL with a 773ER (although they also operate 773s without extended range).
So, wingspan is not an argument against LH-B744 at EDDL, as a 744 is even 0,40 m smaller in that dimension than a 773ER.

Sometimes, people discuss the "80x80 box" which you need to properly park a 388. I don't know the maximum size of the big parking positions at EDDL, probably it's not quite 80x80.

From what I've seen at EDDL so far, I'd guess the biggest positions are 70x70, with enough space for a/c that are not longer than 75 m.
That includes 744 and 773ER.
But 748i and 388 exceed the size limits not only at EDDL. Imho it's good to also have longhaul jets that fit into the "smaller" parking positions, without the necessity to provide "80x80".

And that's why I really like my favourite aircraft, it fits on a lot of airports.
Edit: If you want to know where my avatar is now, I don't have a clue. In German we say "Der kommt ganz schön rum." Watch this, some people say that my avatar will never again be in the air after January 2013. But one thing is for sure, I don't change neither my nickname nor my avatar. History has to be kept alive:
http://jetphotos.net/viewphoto.php?id=6351454&nseq=0
744s are by far not as old as me, so my nickname should rather be LH-B742...
http://jetphotos.net/viewphoto.php?id=552711
But who wants to say that your nickname is so f** old, that it can be found in a museum in Speyer... So I'll also in future stick with the young history of 744s that began in 1989.
Sometimes I'm glad to have found some men who the f** are more experienced than me. For these men and these songs, it is true:
°°°The Eagles feat. Don Henley - Hotel California (1976)
°°°Foreigner - Fool for you anyway (1977)
°°°MC Solaar - Gangster Moderne (1997)
°°°Exile - Kiss You ALL Over (1978_).
The artists are one or two years older than me but they're Gold.

Ah, finally, this one I came across yesterday. LH at Tullamarine, one LH 747 story which is completely new for me. They at least should have booked a baby seat for me in those days, the last link for me for today.
http://jetphotos.net/viewphoto.php?id=6463299&nseq=103

[tsv]

Originally Posted by Taliesin

You can download the financial reports from the Emirates website. Pricewaterhousecoopers have audited Emirates going back to 2001, so I'd say it's legit. They claim 24 years of consecutive profits.

Yeah well what do they say, there are figures, damn lies and statistics (or something similiar).

I don't have time to find the report let alone read it but I would specifically like to know if these so called profits (presumably operating profits) include Aircraft acquistion costs.

According to this source (http://english.alarabiya.net/article...05/236220.html) the UAE is going to take $228 Billion worth of Aircraft in 20 years or 11.4 Billion worth a year.

If EK take half of this total they will have to fork out more than $5B a year for Aircraft payments alone. Even if they retire and sell, say 20 AC/year for $50M each = $1B their net Aircraft Acquistion costs may be more than $4 Billion a year! I simply don't believe they make anywhere near enough profit to pay for all those birds.

Obviously some Aircraft may be leased, they will use long term loans, Accountants will depreciate the planes over time etc etc etc to spread the costs out but the bottom line is that there is a lot more $ going out of Dubai in the Aviation sector than what there is coming in.

Not that there is necessarily anything wrong with that, the UAE want to diversify their economy so they are less dependent on Oil and have chosen the Tourism and Aviation sectors to do so. One day their Investment may well pay off. I don't believe that day has come yet.

[Highkeas]

Originally Posted by tsv

..................... I simply don't believe they make anywhere near enough profit to pay for all those birds.
.............................

Companies don't buy equipment out of profits - they buy (or lease) them out of operating revenues. Same as fuel, maintenence, wages, landing fees, and other operating expenses. Profits are the difference betwen revenue and operating expenses, and are (usually) subject to taxes and shareholder dividends.

I looked at the Emirates most recent annual report. Aircaft leasing was 9% of operating expenses while fuel accounted for 34%.