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Malaysia Airlines Loses Contact With 777 en Route to Beijing

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  • Originally posted by TeeVee View Post
    this entire fiasco can be laid at the feet of the malaysian government no matter what the end result is.

    post 9/11 a plane full of people suddenly and deliberately goes black WHILE YOU ARE STILL tracking it on radar, it radically departs from its flight plan and continues along in the opposite direction and you let it slip away without investigating???????

    sorry, that kind of shit is grossly negligent and borders on criminal.
    Just because you lose contact with a plane doesn't mean you are responsible for the loss. Remember that once contact (radio and SSR) was lost, there was no way of telling which primary radar return was in fact MH370, and that could only be determined tracing it in retrospect. Actually, the loss of contact happened at the same time that the handover to Vietnamese ATC took place. Malaysian ATC expected the aircraft to continue on its way and the Vietnamese were waiting for the first radio contact. Quite some time was lost until ATC figured out what was going on, especially, since it makes sense not to assume the worst if an aircraft doesn't report in. The scenario developing that night could have also unfolded this way: "MH370 loses several electrical systems, causing a loss of communications as well as SSR transponder. The flight crew initiates lost comm procedures and diverts to the nearest suitable airfield, or maybe even to Kuala Lumpur or Ho Chi Minh City Airport. Everybody on board is inconvenienced but safe. The story... well - doesn't make the news at all."
    As it turned out, whoever commandeered the aircraft timed things perfectly. My money is on the pilot(s).

    Comment


    • Originally posted by Peter Kesternich View Post
      Just because you lose contact with a plane doesn't mean you are responsible for the loss. Remember that once contact (radio and SSR) was lost, there was no way of telling which primary radar return was in fact MH370, and that could only be determined tracing it in retrospect. Actually, the loss of contact happened at the same time that the handover to Vietnamese ATC took place. Malaysian ATC expected the aircraft to continue on its way and the Vietnamese were waiting for the first radio contact. Quite some time was lost until ATC figured out what was going on, especially, since it makes sense not to assume the worst if an aircraft doesn't report in. The scenario developing that night could have also unfolded this way: "MH370 loses several electrical systems, causing a loss of communications as well as SSR transponder. The flight crew initiates lost comm procedures and diverts to the nearest suitable airfield, or maybe even to Kuala Lumpur or Ho Chi Minh City Airport. Everybody on board is inconvenienced but safe. The story... well - doesn't make the news at all."
      As it turned out, whoever commandeered the aircraft timed things perfectly. My money is on the pilot(s).

      if this event had occurred over europe, canada, the u.s. you can bet they would've not only tracked it, but sent it a lovely escort. this wasn't just loss of comms, this was an intentional, stepped shut down and evasion.

      Comment


      • I am now willing to bet money that this was a well thought out plan by the Captain of this aircraft. It was probably something that was planned for at least a year if not more. Why they have taken so long to start a “search” of the pilot’s houses is beyond me. His financial records and insurance policies will come to light and play a major role in all of this. This guy has had a long time to plan this operation. He did his “homework” as far as where would be the hardest place to recover the aircraft after he “disposed” of it. The Indian Ocean is one of the deepest in the world.

        Here is my scenario of what I think went down:

        Once airborne the Captain takes out the First Officer. The aircraft climbs to its assigned altitude of FL350 on course to the planned destination. Alone in the cockpit with the ability to start pulling circuit breakers, he first disables the passenger oxygen system. He dons his oxygen mask and slowly raises the cabin so as not to alert the flight attendants. Time of useful consciousness at FL350 is around 5 minutes. After he is satisfied that they are all out (and he can take a look on his cockpit cameras of the back), he re-pressurizes the airplane so he can do his dirty work. He then starts the systematic shutdown of all of the communication equipment. Now he starts his course deviations to throw off anyone that maybe watching his primary radar target. After he is satisfied that he has placed enough “confusion” into the mix, he now inputs the coordinates of his researched really deep spot in the ocean into the FMS, executes the command and sits back and thinks about what he is about to do to himself and the 200+ poor bastards in the back that are going with him.

        Comment


        • Originally posted by TeeVee View Post
          if this event had occurred over europe, canada, the u.s. you can bet they would've not only tracked it, but sent it a lovely escort. this wasn't just loss of comms, this was an intentional, stepped shut down and evasion.
          TeeVee - you have not read my post too closely. Of course it wasn't just loss of comms. But we know that NOW. They had no way of knowing that for quite some time on the night of 8 March.
          And believe me - if this had happened over the North Sea or the Gulf of Mexico, confusion would initally have been as big as it was over the Gulf of Thailand.

          Comment


          • Originally posted by BoeingBobby View Post
            Not sure what the service ceiling on the 777 is but on the 747 it is 45100'
            All you will do is have a cabin altitude that is higher than normal. The fact that the A/C "MAYBE" climbed to FL450 is irrelevant in my opinion.
            All this cabin altitude stuff needs a big time out (with Bobby's last sentence being correct).

            THE altitude at which folks black out varies by person, by their conditioning, by their health at the time...AND cabin alitidue is about a lot more than "passing out" as much as it is mental impairment for the pilots.

            I recently drove from sea-level to the 14,000 ft mountain in Hawaii...It was interesting- a little exercise and you'd be huffing and puffing...and of course, I FELT just fine. I didn't take any sort of profieciency test, but I lived to get in the car and drive back down the hill without crashing.

            I think it's around 19,000 feet where folks start passing out...of course if you have been conditioned at 10 or 15 K for a day or two and in good heath....guess what?

            Anyway- the "danger" of going above FL 410 is IF you rapidly lost pressure there, you'd likley pass out BEFORE you could ever get an 02 mask on...

            ...NOT that FL450 makes the cabin alitidue put folks to sleep.
            Les règles de l'aviation de base découragent de longues périodes de dur tirer vers le haut.

            Comment


            • Originally posted by TeeVee View Post
              if this event had occurred over europe, canada, the u.s. you can bet they would've not only tracked it, but sent it a lovely escort. this wasn't just loss of comms, this was an intentional, stepped shut down and evasion.
              Yes, but not all countries have the budget and technolgoy of US and Canada.
              Many countries (Argentina for exampole) don't even have radar coverage of any kind (primary, secondary, you name it) for most of it's territory, so ATC is based on flight plan and pilot reports as in the old days, or as in intercontinental flights.

              September 2001 was only 7 1/2 years back. Then the USA lost track of 4 planes that they were indeed being tracked both on primary and secondary radars. Wehn they lost the secondary info, they could not tell which primary target belonged to which plane even.

              Many countries are way farther than 7 1/2 years behind USA in radar surveillance capabilities and have other priorities like developing the transport and energy infrastructure and feeding people.

              --- Judge what is said by the merits of what is said, not by the credentials of who said it. ---
              --- Defend what you say with arguments, not by imposing your credentials ---

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              • Climb to FL450 and decompress the aircraft, either gradually or quickly and everyone on the aircraft will die from anoxia (no oxygen). You would have to be some kind of super being to survive at that altitude unpressurized.
                Sudden decompression would I presume risk airframe security assuming a hijacker wanted to keep the aircraft in one piece. Let's hope that, if this is what happened the hijacker gently reduced cabin pressure so that everyone drifted off to their final sleep. All this assumes that the oxygen mask deployment can be overridden because if not then everyone died in abject terror although it would not have taken much more than a minute or so.
                There are factors in this episode that I really don't want to think about.....especially as I'm flying in an Emirates 777 to that region on Monday !
                If it 'ain't broken........ Don't try to mend it !

                Comment


                • Originally posted by BoeingBobby View Post
                  Here is my scenario of what I think went down:

                  Once airborne the Captain takes out the First Officer. The aircraft climbs to its assigned altitude of FL350 on course to the planned destination. Alone in the cockpit with the ability to start pulling circuit breakers, he first disables the passenger oxygen system. He dons his oxygen mask and slowly raises the cabin so as not to alert the flight attendants. Time of useful consciousness at FL350 is around 5 minutes. After he is satisfied that they are all out (and he can take a look on his cockpit cameras of the back), he re-pressurizes the airplane so he can do his dirty work.
                  How long will it take to "be satisfied that they are all out" "for good"?

                  I mean, hypoxia due to low air density is highly reversible. Fainting is a way for the body to protect itself: Since there is no enough O2 for all of the system, it "shuts down" most of it leaving only the "essential bus" on, meaning the hart and the lungs, and just a bit more of O2 to keep all the rest of the cells alive but not working, including the brain.

                  At FL350, you still have 30% of the O2 available at sea level. This might not seem like much, but the truth is that the average body needs much less O2 than sea level to keep working normally with a pretty good blood O2 saturation. For example, at 15000ft you have 30% of O2 available and most persons can keep performing normally indefinitely (except for physical exercise). Hell, may persons live higher than that. In the mid 20s the O2 is 45% and the time of USEFUL consciousness is a few minutes, but then you have a lot more minutes of not-so-useful consciousness where the person behave erratically, the judgement is impaired, etc. And those that eventually pass out just "nap" for as long as it takes only to "wake up" when O" levels return to more normal values. People even successfully climbed and descended the FL290 Everest (a highly physical activity that last more than a few minutes, I must say) with no supplemental O2. Okay, this will not your average person, but serves to show the variability of humans. Some will faint while just seated at 15000ft, some can do extenuating exercise at 29000ft and not faint at all. There were lots of cases of planes unpressurizing at cruise altitude and passengers (and even crews) that passed out due to failing to use the masks (or, in case of paxs, even after donning the masks since at very high altitude even the O2 enriched mixture doesn't have enough O2) only to wake up again and regain full and normal function when the pressure restored to more normal levels. So, at FL350 most or all people will have passed out a couple of minutes later. But how long does it take to ensure enough brain damage on all people to ensure that all of them will be "unusable" after restoring the pressure? I don't know the answer, but I'm guessing hours. How much supplemental O2 does the pilot have?

                  I offer an alternative. The pilot just doesn't tell anybody what he is doing (what happened to the other pilot must still be figured out, maybe he was part of this too). It was night so it would have been very difficult for the passengers to note that the plane was not flying over the expected zone. When the time of landing was close, he just says that they are diverting due to weather. Then they start what seemed a normal approach except that it was into the middle of the Indian ocean... or some military airfield in one of the Xxxxstan counties.

                  --- Judge what is said by the merits of what is said, not by the credentials of who said it. ---
                  --- Defend what you say with arguments, not by imposing your credentials ---

                  Comment


                  • I posted the post above before seeing Brian's post.

                    Originally posted by brianw999 View Post
                    Climb to FL450 and decompress the aircraft, either gradually or quickly and everyone on the aircraft will die from anoxia (no oxygen). You would have to be some kind of super being to survive at that altitude unpressurized.
                    You are the medical expert here. Can you find some data about this? Please read my previous post. I know that the human can keep full O2 saturation with O2 levels that are quite less than sea level. And that they will pass out when the O2 saturation descends just a bit (maybe 90%) but can remain alive for quite long with much lower O2 levels.

                    Sudden decompression would I presume risk airframe security assuming a hijacker wanted to keep the aircraft in one piece.
                    Not at all. A structurally safe sudden and full decompression can be achieved in a few seconds by opening the outflow valve and shutting down the pressurization.

                    All this assumes that the oxygen mask deployment can be overridden
                    According to BoeingBobby, it can (and most things in an airplane can be shut down anyway)

                    Of course, this open the possibility (although very left field) that the pilot did not depressurize the plane and everybody is alive and well somewhere between the middle and far east

                    --- Judge what is said by the merits of what is said, not by the credentials of who said it. ---
                    --- Defend what you say with arguments, not by imposing your credentials ---

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Gabriel View Post
                      (...)
                      Of course, this open the possibility (although very left field) that the pilot did not depressurize the plane and everybody is alive and well somewhere between the middle and far east
                      Alive? Hmmmm - there is a possibility. Well? I doubt that.

                      Comment


                      • I've found this (note SaO2 = arterial blood O2 saturation):

                        ....SaO2...........Effect
                        85% and above...No evidence of impairment
                        65% and less....Impaired mental function on average
                        55% and less....Loss of consciousness on average



                        What it doesn't say is:
                        How much O2 blood saturation and time is needed for a severe permanent damage or death.
                        How little O2 partial pressure in the breathed air is needed to generate such O2 blood saturation in a normal person.

                        --- Judge what is said by the merits of what is said, not by the credentials of who said it. ---
                        --- Defend what you say with arguments, not by imposing your credentials ---

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Peter Kesternich View Post
                          Alive? Hmmmm - there is a possibility. Well? I doubt that.
                          Being captive in inhumane conditions, largely uninjured and barely fed with rice and water is well enough given the circumstances.

                          Still, highly unlikely.

                          --- Judge what is said by the merits of what is said, not by the credentials of who said it. ---
                          --- Defend what you say with arguments, not by imposing your credentials ---

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by brianw999 View Post
                            Climb to FL450 and decompress the aircraft, either gradually or quickly and everyone on the aircraft will die from anoxia (no oxygen). You would have to be some kind of super being to survive at that altitude unpressurized.
                            The point is that FL350 to 410 (where they were cruising) is almost 100% equally effective at doing all that stuff as FL450.

                            There's no reason to climb to FL450 and a secondary point that climbing to FL450 with the pressurization working normally isn't going to put folks to sleep either.
                            Les règles de l'aviation de base découragent de longues périodes de dur tirer vers le haut.

                            Comment


                            • This is to show the difference between "loss of useful consciousness" (which in not even "unconscious") and "death".


                              --- Judge what is said by the merits of what is said, not by the credentials of who said it. ---
                              --- Defend what you say with arguments, not by imposing your credentials ---

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by brianw999 View Post
                                Climb to FL450 and decompress the aircraft, either gradually or quickly and everyone on the aircraft will die from anoxia (no oxygen). You would have to be some kind of super being to survive at that altitude unpressurized.
                                Sudden decompression would I presume risk airframe security assuming a hijacker wanted to keep the aircraft in one piece. Let's hope that, if this is what happened the hijacker gently reduced cabin pressure so that everyone drifted off to their final sleep. All this assumes that the oxygen mask deployment can be overridden because if not then everyone died in abject terror although it would not have taken much more than a minute or so.
                                There are factors in this episode that I really don't want to think about.....especially as I'm flying in an Emirates 777 to that region on Monday !

                                The difference between FL450 and FL350 is a couple minutes of useful consciousness. That is about it. Let them sit for around 30 minutes and not much to worry about from the back any longer.

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