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Sukhoi Superjet missing in Indonesia

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  • #31
    This is the latest of many many mountain crashes where the plane deliberately descended below the mountain tops.

    With old technolgoy- you were supposed to know your location and the mountain's location. With new technology, you would hopefully see it on a moving map.

    It seems so incomprehensible, but it happens- and I posted on another website that it seems there's some Murphy's-Law-Tractor-Beam that sucks aircraft into mountains- even though 1940-era maps and tools and 21st century moving maps and computer integrated navigation should give you the ability to stay away.

    Are some of these flights trying for a great view and deliberately flying towards the mountain, and then, when the mountain is obscured, they continue, thinking that the fog will break (and technolgy will protect them)?

    What's different between this month and last?
    Les règles de l'aviation de base découragent de longues périodes de dur tirer vers le haut.

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    • #32
      In looking at a looser photo and making some dangerous assumptions- it appears it may have hit a smaller peak to the side of a bigger one. Again, wondering if they weren't doing some great 'critical' navigation to miss the big one, but getting burned by the devil in the details.
      Les règles de l'aviation de base découragent de longues périodes de dur tirer vers le haut.

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      • #33
        I wonder how badly this disaster will affect the program of SSJ-100 in general. Must be a terrible blow at the beginning of its epoch.
        Air crashes don't just happen... www.aircrash.ucoz.net

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        • #34
          Originally posted by 3WE View Post
          Are some of these flights trying for a great view and deliberately flying towards the mountain, and then, when the mountain is obscured, they continue, thinking that the fog will break (and technolgy will protect them)?
          [Parlour talking] It wouldn't surprise me to hear. Given the nature of the flight, it would seem to be a not-unlikely scenario and under the circumstances a less egregious circumstance than the thought that there might be something inherently wrong with the plane or its systems. [/parlour talking]

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          • #35
            Originally posted by 3WE View Post
            Are some of these flights trying for a great view and deliberately flying towards the mountain, and then, when the mountain is obscured, they continue, thinking that the fog will break (and technolgy will protect them)?
            {parlour talk}

            or... since this was a publicity flight... there were press aboard... were they deliberately showing off their needle-threading capabilities... and got too close in the fog...

            ...showing off a la Airbus 1988...

            {/parlour talk}

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            • #36
              Has to seem plausible. But with a 10,000 hour captain at the controls?
              Yet another AD.com convert!

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              • #37
                Originally posted by mawheatley View Post
                Has to seem plausible. But with a 10,000 hour captain at the controls?
                Again [Parlour talking] but I would suggest it'd be more likely than from a 1,000 hour captain. Situational overconfidence. IANAP but in every human undertaking, there comes a degree of personal confidence that one has met and bested every conceivable vector of challenge to one's normal undertaking. If there's any positive that seems to be had at this stage is that presumably the end was either quick or immediate for all lost. Not much consolation to those left behind but better than the alternative. [/Parlour talking]

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                • #38
                  I don't think it makes much sense to suggest that they were trying to get in a little close-up sightseeing or trying to impress anyone with pinpoint flying skills - it was just too foggy, so foggy, in fact, they apparently couldn't see the mountain they were about to fly into.

                  So that leaves us with the probability that they thought they were somewhere they weren't, and that's the part where I would need someone with expertise to explain the scenarios in which that might happen (in a well-equipped modern aircraft). It doesn't seem that they just grazed the summit, either, they were down a ways.

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                  • #39
                    Originally posted by Arrow View Post
                    Again [Parlour talking] but I would suggest it'd be more likely than from a 1,000 hour captain. Situational overconfidence. IANAP but in every human undertaking, there comes a degree of personal confidence that one has met and bested every conceivable vector of challenge to one's normal undertaking. If there's any positive that seems to be had at this stage is that presumably the end was either quick or immediate for all lost. Not much consolation to those left behind but better than the alternative. [/Parlour talking]
                    I understand that. I read on the AF447 forum that the two times when a pilot is most likely to mess up is 100hrs and 10,000 hrs. (Not 10, 1,000 or 100,000.)

                    But even so, this kind of mistake (if that's what it was - I know it's far to early to state that's what it was) still seems unbelievable for a 10,000 pilot. To put that into perspective for desk jockeys like me, that's like working an 8hr day, every week day, for 5yrs and only taking 2wks vacation per year! And that's completely ignoring any regulations governing time between flights, mandated days off etc.
                    Yet another AD.com convert!

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                    • #40
                      Crappy Never-ending News is reporting that the Russians have begun a "criminal investigation" into "safety violations." Foul play? Indonesian islamic fundamentalists exacting revenge for the nice way the russians have treated russian muslims?

                      i'm just talking crap, i know. but why do you think they have launched a criminal investigation so early on? maybe they know something the press is not reporting...

                      Rescuers temporarily halted efforts to reach the wreckage of a Russian jetliner that crashed on a demonstration flight in Indonesia.

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                      • #41
                        Whatever comes about from all the inevitable investigations there is one certainty to be recognised....

                        .....Cumulo Granitus strikes again.
                        If it 'ain't broken........ Don't try to mend it !

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                        • #42
                          Originally posted by TeeVee View Post
                          Crappy Never-ending News is reporting that the Russians have begun a "criminal investigation" into "safety violations." Foul play? Indonesian islamic fundamentalists exacting revenge for the nice way the russians have treated russian muslims?

                          i'm just talking crap, i know. but why do you think they have launched a criminal investigation so early on? maybe they know something the press is not reporting...

                          http://www.cnn.com/2012/05/10/world/...html?hpt=hp_t2
                          What crap. I think the Russians should start by investigating how much vodka the pilot downed prior to the flight.

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                          • #43
                            Could it be that the area maps are inacurate?
                            Or maybe an aircraft instrumentation or Glonass (assuming they use this system) issue?
                            I hope they had data recorders and that they are recovered.

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                            • #44
                              Originally posted by mawheatley View Post
                              Has to seem plausible. But with a 10,000 hour captain at the controls?
                              The captain in the American Airlines B757 CFIT accident in Cali, Colombia had 13,000 hours...
                              The "keep my tail out of trouble" disclaimer: Though I work in the airline industry, anything I post on here is my own speculation or opinion. Nothing I post is to be construed as "official" information from any air carrier or any other entity.

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                              • #45
                                Originally posted by TeeVee View Post
                                Crappy Never-ending News is reporting that the Russians have begun a "criminal investigation" into "safety violations." Foul play? Indonesian islamic fundamentalists exacting revenge for the nice way the russians have treated russian muslims?

                                i'm just talking crap, i know. but why do you think they have launched a criminal investigation so early on? maybe they know something the press is not reporting...

                                http://www.cnn.com/2012/05/10/world/...html?hpt=hp_t2
                                Trying to muddy the waters early on to distract those for whom this incident will quickly fade from mind in favour of the next breathless bit of important news.

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