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  • Interesting article on 757 replacement

    Boeing is working on getting feedback, but looks like the airlines aren't too clear either on what exactly they need. The 727 replacement analogy does kind of make it all the more interesting.

    Source: Aviation Week

  • #2
    http://aviationweek.com/commercial-a...757-successors
    To Richard Aboulafia, vice president of analysis at the Teal Group, the answer is “a no-brainer.” He believes there is a market for 3,000-4,000 757-size aircraft over 20 years. Aboulafia envisions an aircraft seating approximately 220 passengers and flying up to 5,000 nm. The passenger capacity would therefore be similar to the high-density layouts of the 737 MAX or A321, but would be achieved in a configuration suitable for legacy carrier long-haul services. Aboulafia believes the aircraft should offer a 20% unit cost advantage over the existing 757.
    I agree with him here, fully. Not replacing the 757 has been a dually frustrating and perplexing issue for fans of the 757, Boeing, and airlines alike. There is quite a lot of range, capacities, and realities between the 737 MAX-9 and the 787-8. The 787-3, supposedly was created to address the issue - taking on the challenge of replacing the 767-200 and perhaps the 757 as well. That said, it was shuttered.

    At present, airlines (such as loyal customer AA) has had to replace their strong fleet of 757s with A321s. Where is the response from Boeing?

    The 757 replacement is likely to be the only untapped market that Boeing can fill well and profitably in the future, with a new aircraft. The platform will allow carriers to do U.S. Trans-Cons, Trans-Atlantics, and long-haul flights that would not be suited to a twin-aisled aircraft. LCCs looking to expand to larger aircraft, Legacy Carriers looking to add greater amenities and cabins to their medium haul routes, and even cargo carriers looking to add capacity to their networks can take advantage of a new aircraft. With the smaller ends of the A320 and 737 coming under pressure for the likes of Embraer, Bombardier, Sukhoi, and other Eastern competitors - the time is now to act, and to create a solid performer. The airlines may not have asked for it before now due to money - but their current 757s are not getting any younger, and with all legacy U.S. carriers using 757s as they do - they will soon be looking for appropriate replacements.
    Whatever is necessary, is never unwise.

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    • #3
      Airbus replacement for 757

      Here is a related article from yesterday's AIAA Newsletter:

      Airbus Launches New A321 Model To Fill Boeing 757’s Market.
      Bloomberg News (1/13, Johnsson) reported on how both Boeing and Airbus are aiming to “fill the market void for trans-Atlantic flying” created when Boeing discontinued its 757. Airbus just announced a new long-range A321 model, while Boeing has spoken with 30 customers about what they would like for a replacement. Airbus’ new plane will include “a third auxiliary tank to fly 206 passengers across the Atlantic and other routes as long as 4,000 nautical miles.” However, Randy Tinseth, Boeing vice president for Marketing, said that it was “laughable” that Airbus thinks it can sell 1,000 of the planes when only about 50 or 60 757s currently fly the long distances.

      Reuters (1/13, Scott) noted that Airbus’ new longer-range A321neo, which will initially be sold to Air Lease Corp., will compete with Boeing’s 737 MAX 9. Tinseth said that Airbus is just catching up to what the Boeing 737-900 and 737 MAX 9 can already accomplish. However, Leeham Co. Analyst Scott Hamilton thinks that the A321neo is a better plane than the 737 MAX 9.

      Aviation Week (1/13, Flottau) and Flightglobal (1/13, Kaminski-Morrow) also covered the story, but focused mainly on the unveiling of the A321neo.

      .............................”

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      • #4
        the 787-3 was more targeted towards the Asian market, specifically Japan. All it is is a 787-8 in a single class layout with winglets to reduce the wingspan so it could fit in smaller gate spaces without the need for the airports to expand. But ANA and JAL didn't show enough interest so it was cancelled.

        I love the 757 and seriously hope the replacement is kind of an exact replica of the 757 just modernized. The A321 could never truly replace the 757, not enough range or capacity
        I'm the guy... Porter Guy

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        • #5
          The 757 became essential for Trans-Atlantic airlines testing new markets for it's amazing capacity to do something near impossible, be large enough to support a decent capacity, with great performance capabilities and be versatile to also sub into potent larger demand and transcontinental traffic as well. They were great lithmus tests to new markets and with an industry that does not have the resources to invest in new cities (in marketing and placing a superior product to show off against competition, et al) well and so need a decent load and something that they can build on (in some cases with very little support on the ground).

          Pick any U.S. based airline serving Europe. Hell, go back prior to the last round of mergers. Every carrier mentioned had then, and still has now, 757s in the fleet. They have become essential. No 737 product can accurately or properly replace the 757-200, much less the 757-300.

          Those carriers need a replacement. The 767-200s are out in most of their fleets, AA's 787s (joining UA), will bring that count to two operators in the U.S., with both carriers using them as 767-777 esque routes and replacing 767s. The 757 decision is being dragged out. Sure they can wait 5 years, but some are already moving on. AA's selection of the A321 for their Transcontinental routes (and dedicated, specialized product - full First, Business and Coach cabins) and JetBlue's very swankly decide out sleeper suites on their A321s are easily convertable to that lucrative market, but I wonder if it could not be similarly modified for some transatlantic aspirations.

          ...and then Airbus announces the A321LR.

          No 757 replacement, and Airbus is taking advantage of the versativily of their product in a new design reality. Boeing has done this before. But, some carriers are making the move. I wish Boeing had decent response, because its a market that could yeild significant orders if carries apply the aircraft well.
          Whatever is necessary, is never unwise.

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          • #6
            Originally posted by AA 1818 View Post
            Not replacing the 757 has been a dually frustrating and perplexing issue for fans of the 757, Boeing, and airlines alike.
            No there hasn't. That's something that's ONLY been in the minds of aviation fanboys.

            Anyway, it's all for naught, Tinseth put the kibosh on all the rumors (as of yesterday, spread even by the Wall Street Journal) of a 757 comeback, in no uncertain terms:


            "It is not an option to restart 757 with new engines. (Very firm "No.") Business case is not going to close. @Boeing's Tinseth"
            Us, lighting a living horse on fire:
            http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dH2_Q3oJPeU

            Check it out!

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            • #7
              Originally posted by ConcordeBoy View Post
              No there hasn't. That's something that's ONLY been in the minds of aviation fanboys.
              Well, I assume that the notable orders (AA now using them as the platform for their transcontinental flight\premium service - a once prolific 757 operator, Hawaiian, Lion Air), and a total of 564 aircraft ordered, one would assume that it has been on the minds of more than just arm chair CEOs. Billions of dollars offered up solely to EADS because the 737-900 and/or 737 MAX-9 is an inadequate replacement. It's frustrating to see a company that normally does so well, fail here, with a critical hole in the market.


              Originally posted by ConcordeBoy View Post
              Anyway, it's all for naught, Tinseth put the kibosh on all the rumors (as of yesterday, spread even by the Wall Street Journal) of a 757 comeback, in no uncertain terms:
              "It is not an option to restart 757 with new engines. (Very firm "No.") Business case is not going to close. @Boeing's Tinseth"
              I think you might be misreading the tweet and/or not being provided the context under which his comments were made. He is stating that when it comes to replacing the 757, they can't just do a 757 NEO, or a 757 MAX. We are going to have to wait for a new design, and that will likely come in the future (though, when, and held up against the other higher profile projects, is not certain).

              Let's see how long the 737 MAX lasts. Perhaps we will see a replacement for the 757 in the next iteration (by which time, a major overhaul of the 737's design will likey be necessary).
              Whatever is necessary, is never unwise.

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by AA 1818 View Post
                Perhaps we will see a replacement for the 757 in the next iteration (by which time, a major overhaul of the 737's design will likey be necessary).
                Maybe slap some taller landing gear under it?
                Les règles de l'aviation de base découragent de longues périodes de dur tirer vers le haut.

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by 3WE View Post
                  Maybe slap some taller landing gear under it?
                  Yup, in order to fit newer engines. Perhaps a carbon fiber fuselage, greater composite uses in other parts of the aircraft, completely newer challenges for the day that it will be flying.
                  Whatever is necessary, is never unwise.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by AA 1818 View Post
                    one would assume
                    That'd be your trouble, right there

                    Originally posted by AA 1818 View Post
                    with a critical hole in the market.
                    WHAT "critical hole?"

                    ...see that is the sort of thing that, as prior stated, appears to only exist in fanboy fantasies.

                    There is no "critical" hole, because the 739ER/A321 can perform about 90% of previous 752 routes at similar capacity and **much** lower cost. 739MAX/A321NEO/A321LR will close this gap even further.

                    For the dozen or so routes in the world that absolutely require a 752, the remaining 757 fleet can and will continue to address it for another decade at minimum. Airbus slapped a little work into an A321NEO and basically came up with an -LR than can address the rest.

                    Boeing does not see a necessity to specifically address the miniscule market left over, in between narrowbody cycles. Which is why they've continually said... in no uncertain terms... that they won't.


                    Originally posted by AA 1818 View Post
                    We are going to have to wait for a new design, and that will likely come in the future (though, when, and held up against the other higher profile projects, is not certain).
                    ....you just described the fate of every aircraft ever built.

                    Of course there'll be an eventual replacement, but nothing in the current cycle, and nothing that's going to be remotely connected to the 757 specific model.
                    Us, lighting a living horse on fire:
                    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dH2_Q3oJPeU

                    Check it out!

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Saw this subject on a news article via Yahoo on 6/13/2015.

                      "Boeing reconsidering a 757 replacement"

                      The article was laden with a bunch of stuff about 150 seat versus 165 seat versus 200 seat versus 250 seat aircraft.

                      Probably means about as much as most of the other stuff you read on the internet.
                      Les règles de l'aviation de base découragent de longues périodes de dur tirer vers le haut.

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                      • #12
                        Boeing discussed requirements for a 757 "replacement" at the Dubai air show this week

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