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NWA 255 survivor breaks silence
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But she doesn't understand probability:
"Flying doesn't scare me. I have this mentality where if something bad happened to me once on a plane, it's not going to happen again," Ms Crocker says in the film. "The odds are just astronomical."
--- Judge what is said by the merits of what is said, not by the credentials of who said it. ---
--- Defend what you say with arguments, not by imposing your credentials ---
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Originally posted by Gabriel View PostBut she doesn't understand probability....
It's so easy to belive that since it DID happen to you in the past, the chance of it happening to you in the future is emperically REDUCED.
C'mon, that feels so right...
Les règles de l'aviation de base découragent de longues périodes de dur tirer vers le haut.
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Originally posted by brianw999 View PostI have to admit that I have a rather fatalistic attitude to the laws of probability. I regard my chances as 50:50.
It either happens....or it doesn't !Les règles de l'aviation de base découragent de longues périodes de dur tirer vers le haut.
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the chances of a person being involved in two fatal commercial airline accidents is indeed astronomically low, but as soon as someone is involved in that first accident those odds become much much bigger, in fact as big as anyone else's odds of being in just one fatal commercial airline accident, that is if they survive the first crash of course...moving quickly in air
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Originally posted by brianw999 View PostI have to admit that I have a rather fatalistic attitude to the laws of probability. I regard my chances as 50:50.
It either happens....or it doesn't !
That being said, I do try to limit the activities that might enhance my chances of meeting St. Peter in person sooner rather than later.The "keep my tail out of trouble" disclaimer: Though I work in the airline industry, anything I post on here is my own speculation or opinion. Nothing I post is to be construed as "official" information from any air carrier or any other entity.
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Originally posted by Deadstick View PostYeah whatever, I'm only going to die once. Let it be in a manner that gets front page top of the fold (without me doing anything stupid violent).The "keep my tail out of trouble" disclaimer: Though I work in the airline industry, anything I post on here is my own speculation or opinion. Nothing I post is to be construed as "official" information from any air carrier or any other entity.
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