Polish President and wife killed in Tu-154 crash

[Northwester]

It has been reported today that Polish experts that spent last month in Smolensk have found traces of TNT on the wreckage.
The prosecutor has confirmed the information. I am attaching the pic of the news. The translation of the main part:
"Already first samples from the inside of the plane and the cover of the wings showed positive results.
The detectors indicated that on 30 seats there were traces of TNT and nitroglycerene. These materials were also found in the central part of the plane where the wings connect to the fuselage.
The amounts were so high that the range of one of the detectors was maxed out. Similar results were obtained at the crash site where larger parts of the plane were found.
The traces of explosives were also detected on parts of the plane found during this last trip to Smolensk."

[Passion for flying]

Given an assumption that somewhere in the aircraft, there was an amount of explosives carried for other reasons than blowing the aircraft out of the air, how would anyone with 100% certainty testify that this explosive substance did not in fact ignite and explode as a function of the aircraft crashing into terrain?
Maybe the Polish authorities are reluctant to admit that they in fact were importing substances which would have been considered illegal if found, but it makes more sense to believe that the TNT or whatever is claimed to have been there was there for a known reason.
As understood from the CVR transcripts, the landing attempt was likley to have been made under some duress, from the "brass in the pax". The allegations that the aircraft was brought down by a bomb that blasted at exacly the same time as the aircraft struck a tree or an antenna mast and lost a wing, smells of red herring.
Is this the ultimate attempt to relieve everyone on board of the aircraft the responsibility for the accident?

The discussion regarding the accurate altitude of the aircraft at any certain point during the descent seems to be assuming that the barometric altimeter was set to the correct reference pressure, and that it was accurate to a few meters. However good that may seem, there is some likelihood that this may not have been the case. So, why based on this, attempt to say that the aircraft could not have hit the tree, which in all fact seems to have been clipped by the aircraft?

I realise that this discussion may stir a hornets nest. It´s too quiet here these days anyway.
Any factual input to this would be welcome-

[Northwester]

Several news outlets in Russia (Interfax, Moscow Echo, Voice of Russia, Svoboda) included the information about the discovery of explosives in the wreckage, most of them without any commentary.
Only the weekly "Sobesednik" suggested that "terrorists" might have been involved.

One of the hypothesis considered by th Polish investigators is that the traces of explosives came from the unexploded WWII ordinance.

[Passion for flying]

Are they suggesting that there was an unexploded WW2 bomb buried where the aircraft came down?

That should, given a reasonable size piece of munition, big enough to contaminate 30 seats inside the aircraft, create a noticeable blast hole in the ground.
Are they also referring tho such a hole?

[Northwester]

There was a separate information released today that a family of Ewa Bakowska, one of the crash victims, provided samples from the crash to one of the universities in the US to conduct a chemical analysis.
The results showed traces of TNT. The results have been known since June 16, 2012, but not released out of fear that it would have prevented the return of the plane wreckage to Poland.
In the light of yesterday's revelations there was no need to withhold that information anymore.

[Peter_K]

Originally Posted by Northwester

The prosecutor has confirmed the information.

Not true. In fact today they denied that they are the source of this news and the newspaper that claimed it admitted that they made a "mistake".

http://wiadomosci.wp.pl/kat,1342,tit...l?ticaid=1f705

[Northwester]

Cezary Gmyz, the journalist of "Rzeczpospolita" who published the news about the TNT traces stated that the information was confirmed by 4 independent sources.
The publication of the news was preceded by the meeting between the newspaper's chief editor and the prosecutor general Andrzej Seremet.

http://wpolityce.pl/wydarzenia/39604...nitrogliceryna

The news caused a political storm in Poland. The accusations are being thrown back and forth between the government and opposition groups.
The head of the oposition is talking about "murder" of 96 Poles, the prime minister is saying that there is no place in Poland for people making such accusations.

[Jonathan_Creek]

Here is a good summary of the recent media storm in Poland:
Wall Street Journal
and New York Times

NYT story has really interesting quote from Polish authorities:
“It is not true that investigators found traces” of explosives, said the spokesman, Col. Ireneusz Szelag, who added that it might be as long as six months before conclusive test findings were available.

Russian and Polish reports published so far, as well as many members of this forum absolutely dismissed an idea of an act of terror. It is interesting to see authorities stating that the will have conclusive test findings only in early 2013.

Another interesting (and tragic) part in NYT piece is that they mentioned that
(..)a witness who was scheduled to testify before a parliamentary investigation was found hanged in his house in Warsaw, presumably a suicide.

The witness, Remigiusz Mus, was a flight engineer who flew into Smolensk an hour before Mr. Kaczynski’s plane crashed. He had said afterward that Russian air traffic controllers gave his flight’s pilot permission to descend to a low altitude in preparation for landing, contradicting an official investigation by the Interstate Aviation Committee.

This is New York Times. I can add that late Mr. Mus testified that traffic control gave his crew permission to descent to 50 meters and also later did the same in conversation with TU-154 crew. He claimed to have heard conversation between TU-154 and traffic controller (it was also recorded by his plane's equipment). He could not provide an explanation why this exchange did not appear in the official CVR transcript.

I provided links to WSJ and NYT hoping to tone down our conversation and avoid insulting attacks. Thank you.

[Gabriel]

Some isolated fragments of those NYT and WSJ articles:

“Specialist tools, the so-called ion-mobility spectrometers, were used … to screen for chemicals that could be high-energy materials, including explosives,” he told a press conference.

“The experts didn’t identify explosives, including TNT and nitroglycerin, during their work, which was to secure evidence.

“Only laboratory tests will provide the basis for stating that trace explosives were or weren’t found. … The spectrometer can react in the same way to the presence of an explosive substance as well as to some pesticides, thinners, elements of plastic materials, and even of cosmetics.”

“It is not true that investigators found traces”

“Evidence and opinions collected so far have in no way provided support to the belief that the crash was the result of actions of third parties, that is to say an assassination.”

the newspaper, Rzeczpospolita, partly retracted its report online, saying that the findings about the chemical traces were not as definitive as it had initially said.

The newspaper noted that such traces could have come from the ground where the plane crashed, a wooded area near Smolensk that was the scene of intense combat during World War II

Rzeczpospolita said that while the chemicals that were detected might be TNT and nitroglycerin, they were not necessarily so.

[Peter_K]

Originally Posted by Gabriel

Some isolated fragments of those NYT and WSJ articles:

Good summary. What the articles don't mention is that the spectrometer also went wild when tested against the canopy of the tent in which the inspectors were working.

[Northwester]

From the Guardian:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012...kage-materials

[Northwester]

Originally Posted by Peter_K

Good summary. What the articles don't mention is that the spectrometer also went wild when tested against the canopy of the tent in which the inspectors were working.

How do you know this?

[Peter_K]

http://m.polskatimes.pl/p1ugu/artykul.html?synd=665641

Dodał, że urządzenia te reagowały np. na namiot wykonany z PCW

[Peter_K]

With all the fancy explosive substances available today, why use the ancient TNT? It's like using a culverin canon to sink a modern battleship.

[Northwester]

Originally Posted by Peter_K

With all the fancy explosive substances available today, why use the ancient TNT? It's like using a culverin canon to sink a modern battleship.

I don't know, maybe because it is easier to clean it up?
I know that ion-mobility spectrometer detects plasma presence which indicates an explosion. I don't know if they had any other equipment with them but some people say they did.
I know that TNT was detected on a sample (seatbelt from the plane)tested in the US using a chemical method, not a mass spectrometer.
Polish TV news today showed a portable detecting equipment that when exposed to traces of TNT showed clearly "TNT" on the screen. The potential error readings of equipment like this is estimated to be about 1%.

There is a lot of spinning happening right now, but I have only one question: why did the Polish prosecutors leave the suspect samples with positive "high energy" readings in Russia?

[Northwester]

This is the seatbelt that was sent to the US and tested positive for TNT.

[Northwester]

This is a Sabre4000 ion mobility spectrometer that is used in Poland. The second pic shows the screen when TNT is detected.

[Northwester]

BTW, why is the wreckage tested by Polish prosecutors for explosives NOW, 2 1/2 years after the crash?

[Gabriel]

Originally Posted by Northwester

BTW, why is the wreckage tested by Polish prosecutors for explosives NOW, 2 1/2 years after the crash?

To give time to the conspiracy theorists to gain access to the wreckage and spray it with water contaminated with TNT, of course.

[Northwester]

The Westdeutsche Zeitung published an article in which they maintain that the Flight Engineer from the Yak, Remigiusz Mus, an important witness whose testimony contradicted the official version of the CVR transcript, and who was found dead few days ago, had anasthetics in his blood.

http://www.wz-newsline.de/home/polit...mmen-1.1141048