B747-8 no future oders?

[G-TTIC]

Hello

I am surprised that since the initial orders placed a few years back the 747-8 orderbook has basically been flat (or near enough). I allso suprised that now LH have the pax version (the I) in active service that no ones following suit. It would be a fantastic A/C in ops that require more capacity the the 777/330/340/747-4 but where the 380 would just be overkill for those carriers and/or routes. Its the best happy medium A/C

Quite surprising

[tsv]

Originally Posted by G-TTIC

Hello

I am surprised that since the initial orders placed a few years back the 747-8 orderbook has basically been flat (or near enough). I allso suprised that now LH have the pax version (the I) in active service that no ones following suit. It would be a fantastic A/C in ops that require more capacity the the 777/330/340/747-4 but where the 380 would just be overkill for those carriers and/or routes. Its the best happy medium A/C

Quite surprising

I don't find it surprising at all, it's a very old design and as much as they tart it up it will never be true competitor to the A380 at the higher end or A350/777 at the lower end.

This leaves it occupying a very small niche in the market, i.e. Airlines who need that particular size and/or Airlines who already operate 747's and need a couple more VLA but do not want to go to the expense of introducing a new type.

The freighter version will do a bit better but again the Twins have huge advantages over the Quads in an environment of high fuel costs so don't expect too much success there either.

[LUNN]

Any idea if Arik, Air China and Hong Kong Airlines have confirmed their orders?

[AA 1818]

Originally Posted by LUNN

Any idea if Arik, Air China and Hong Kong Airlines have confirmed their orders?

Arik, certainly not.

Air China, not sure.

Hong Kong Airlines, they are in such a financial position back home with HKIA and creditors that it's not a matter of if they do or don't. The planes are never going to be there.

[CO777/200]

Originally Posted by AA 1818

Arik, certainly not.

They already confirmed their order!

http://boeing.mediaroom.com/index.php?s=43&item=1964

[LH-B744]

Well. Afaik, the 748is have been acquired to solve the Problem that all aur old B744s (like D-ABVD, which will no longer be in the air after JAN 2013) were leaving. These machines are just too old to expect a future in the LH longhaul fleet. So, we don't expect Boeings to replace our D-ABVD, but we expect an aviation company who is able to deliver our orders.
We are not fixed on a special manufacturer, 748i or 388, so, who is able to deliver our orders?

Edit: I dont't appreciate this development, as I am a convinced customer of pmdg simulations. But even me is not able to deny the facts that take place in our short haul fleet. But, this is nothing new, even the UA short haul fleet before the CO merger has gone through this:
B737s are replaced by A320s and A320 neo's.

So, I can't form an opposition to the a/c's that we were using since almost 50 years. But our 733s and 735s will not be used by the NG of pilots. And that's a fact, afaik.

Thus, I am an opponent of mergers, i.e. only a clear loss of aviation quality. The best evidence in Europe has been done when LTU has vanished from our airports (in the year 2008_).
Since then, not a single thing has improved in our area.

And what has improved since NW disappeared from all their worldwide known hubs, PHNL, KMSP, KDTW, EHAM, and so on and so on and so on, since they've been present with their 742s @ EDDL? Imho, nothing.

So, this might be an explanation why I am a manifested opponent of mergers. Imho, a merger has never (!) had a positive effect on aviation, not since I am an aviation enthusiast (since the beginning of the 1980s).

[Peter Kesternich]

Originally Posted by tsv

(...)it's a very old design and as much as they tart it up it will never be true competitor to the A380 at the higher end or A350/777 at the lower end.
(...)

Well - the 747-8 has a new wing and a new engine, so it's NOT an old design. As for the competition, I think the 777 and A350 are out of that league simply because they are twin-engined. So the only thing that you can compare the 747-8 with is the A380. And let's face it: the A380 is not a big seller either. According to the Airbus website, total orders for the A380 currently stand at 257. That's still about 200 short of the estimated break-even point, and if I recall correctly the last order for the A380 was received more than a year ago. So the question is not about the future of the 747-8 alone, but about very large aircraft in general. I think VLA are generally a niche market these days.

[Taliesin]

Originally Posted by Peter Kesternich

Well - the 747-8 has a new wing and a new engine, so it's NOT an old design.

The 747-8 does not have a new wing. It was re-profiled and received raked wingtips, but structurally stayed the same. The wing sweep remained the same, which costs a considerable amount of weight.
A new wing would have had 5-8° less wing sweep while keeping the same area and span and would have saved in the order of 5-6t. It's not a new wing.

[Peter Kesternich]

Originally Posted by Taliesin

The 747-8 does not have a new wing. It was re-profiled and received raked wingtips, but structurally stayed the same. The wing sweep remained the same, which costs a considerable amount of weight.
A new wing would have had 5-8° less wing sweep while keeping the same area and span and would have saved in the order of 5-6t. It's not a new wing.

Well - the inner structure might be the same, but the aerodynamical aspects changed considerably, including the wingtips, the profile and the flap system and therefore I think it IS a new wing.

[WestjetterO]

I could see BA and/or CX ordering the 747-8i, since they are squeezing every last drop out of the 747-400. I sure hope they do, as well as some other airlines in the future.

Don't get me wrong, I love the 777 and have high hopes for the A350, but I sincerely hope they are not going to dominate the future of commercial aviation. I can't see them completely replacing larger aircraft like the 747-8i and the A380.

[Taliesin]

Originally Posted by Peter Kesternich

Well - the inner structure might be the same, but the aerodynamical aspects changed considerably, including the wingtips, the profile and the flap system and therefore I think it IS a new wing.

You are of course entitled to your opinion, but as you point out, the profile is changed, the wingtips are different and the flap system is new. The wing itself however, is not. "New wing" implies "new design" or other significant structural differences when that's not the case.
You can call it whatever you want, it's a 60's design in a new package and this fact is worth tons in DOW so I think it's significant.

[3WE]

Originally Posted by Peter Kesternich

Well - the inner structure might be the same, but the aerodynamical aspects changed considerably, including the wingtips, the profile and the flap system and therefore I think it IS a new wing.

The inner structure is the same, but it IS a new wing?... and ALL CAPS on "IS"...???

Yep, overplayed your hand.

Unless it's completely new, I belive the better word is "updated"

Might be significantly updated, but as Gabrield said, significantly can, unfortunately, be very subjective.