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List of REASONS why my plane could crash. How to AVOID ? What to think about BEFORE ?

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  • List of REASONS why my plane could crash. How to AVOID ? What to think about BEFORE ?

    Hello,

    It seems that "specialists" are always good to tell AFTER the crash that it could have been avoided, like when Malaysia airlines was flying above Ukraine.


    But my questions is why not thinking about all the reasons that could crash my plane BEFORE ?


    For example we now know that it's stupid to fly above war zones, but I guess that many planes are still flying above these zones ?

    I am expecting general facts in reply but I am especially interested to fly from China to UK.


    My idea is that pilots are most of the time the cause of the accident because they were not able to handle the situation, so what are we doing to get better pilots ? Especially when knowing that they get a low salary in low cost airlines and I guess lower and lower in international airlines also ?


    Thank you for your ideas.

  • #2
    Originally posted by officialtravelnews View Post
    Hello,

    It seems that "specialists" are always good to tell AFTER the crash that it could have been avoided, like when Malaysia airlines was flying above Ukraine.


    But my questions is why not thinking about all the reasons that could crash my plane BEFORE ?


    For example we now know that it's stupid to fly above war zones, but I guess that many planes are still flying above these zones ?

    I am expecting general facts in reply but I am especially interested to fly from China to UK.


    My idea is that pilots are most of the time the cause of the accident because they were not able to handle the situation, so what are we doing to get better pilots ? Especially when knowing that they get a low salary in low cost airlines and I guess lower and lower in international airlines also ?


    Thank you for your ideas.
    A lot of things are thought before. Some times things that were not thought hit. Some times things that were thought hit because of some kind of failure in the implementation. Sometimes something that was thought hit because there was some risk left there knowingly (for example, everybody know that 2 engines can fail for independent reasons and that 4 engines would be much safer from this point of view, yet most planes have only 2 engines for other reasons).

    Nothing is risk-free and aviation is not the exception. There are known risks that are accepted for economical, feasibility, environmental or other reasons, or even because removing one risk increases another (flammable, explosive fuel is a risk. Would you like your plane to take as little as possible?)

    Humans, in particular, are quite unpredictable by nature, something that tries to be coped with with standardized procedures and good training.

    Finally, it is not true that low-paid pilots from low-cost airlines are significantly more unsafe. The regional airlines in USA, and many low cost airlines in Europe are proof of that with excellent safety records.

    --- Judge what is said by the merits of what is said, not by the credentials of who said it. ---
    --- Defend what you say with arguments, not by imposing your credentials ---

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    • #3
      A major cause of accidents is inadequate crew resource management (CRM) and CRM effectiveness is sometimes related to the cultural background of the crew.

      Here is some info on CRM and culture: http://flightsafety.org/aerosafety-w...ticultural-CRM

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by Highkeas View Post
        A major cause of accidents is inadequate crew resource management (CRM) and CRM effectiveness is sometimes related to the cultural background of the crew.

        Here is some info on CRM and culture: http://flightsafety.org/aerosafety-w...ticultural-CRM
        And to clarify, "major" is a relative term, not an absolute one.
        "Major" meaning that from all accidents out there, CRM issues tends to be a frequent causative or contributive factor.
        But there are very very few accidents out there to begin with.

        --- Judge what is said by the merits of what is said, not by the credentials of who said it. ---
        --- Defend what you say with arguments, not by imposing your credentials ---

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by officialtravelnews View Post
          Hello,

          It seems that "specialists" are always good to tell AFTER the crash that it could have been avoided, like when Malaysia airlines was flying above Ukraine.
          But my questions is why not thinking about all the reasons that could crash my plane BEFORE ?
          The purpose of crash investigations is to determine any unknown threats or vulnerabilities as they reveal themselves in accidents and thus to prevent the next accident BEFORE it happens.

          That all depends on a stringent civil aviation authority and operators who place safety above profits.

          Now, take your Malaysia Airlines Flt 17 example: The ICAO issued warnings about the danger of overflying that region BEFORE the crash. The FAA banned airlines under their jurisdiction from overflying parts of the region (although technically not the airway MH17 was on). It would not have been difficult for Malaysian to recognize the danger and alter their flight plans to be on the safe side. But nothing REQUIRED them to do this, and they opted to take the risk.

          So how do you prevent this from happening again? You get serious about risk assessment and provide a margin of safety beyond the known threat. You play it safe. And you make that a REQUIREMENT. That requires a healthy safety culture and a vigilant and diligent civil aviation authority for EVERY airline.

          In many places, including Europe, this doesn't always exist. The regulatory bodies are still too lenient and leave too much to the discretion of the operators. Too many operators are willing to take risks or cut corners for the sake of their bottom line.

          But make no mistake... this is RARELY because the risks aren't known. The specialists behind air crash investigations have revealed many threats BEFORE subsequent crashes occurred and HAD issued recommendations to the industry. The industry doesn't always follow those recommendations. If these were mandates instead of recommendations, that might make a big difference.

          The two things you can do to defend yourself are also very difficult to gauge. Firstly, you can try to fly only on airlines that are under the aegis of well-regarded civil aviation authorities. Secondly, you can try to fly on airlines that embrace a strong safety culture, often exceeding the civil aviation safety requirements or taking initiative BEFORE they are required to. This is why you can fly with some assurance on certain carriers despite a weak civil aviation oversight. How do you determine these things? The ICAO should provide a sort of safety-culture rating score but, aside from their broad Category rating, they don't. So you have to do a lot of research on your own. Good luck!

          Flying is astonishingly safe these days. It could be even safer with a zero-tolerance policy toward eliminating all known and correctable vulnerabilities (within the realm of viability of course) but the industry has too strong of a hand in the regulatory politics for this to be realized. Currently, while it isn't officially acknowledged, a compromise exists that assumes a certain amount of risk and an acceptable fatality rate.

          Lufthansa runs one of the most respected pilot training programs in the world and has an excellent safety culture as far as I can tell. And yet, a Lufthansa pilot deliberately crashed his A320 into a mountain with 150 people on board. Nowhere is absolutely safe. Lufthansa should have been made aware that their pilot was unstable; they should have known the meds he was on; they should have been more vigilant about the mental health of their pilots. They weren't; and now they are. If it's reasonable now, it was reasonable then. But, prior to this crash, the industry had fought against it, calling it unreasonable. It often takes a tragedy to get to a safer standard.

          I think that's just how it is always going to be. Flying has inherent risks and people are inherently incompetent, corrupt or lacking in initiative and foresight.

          Except for the 'specialists', that is...

          Comment


          • #6
            Thank you for your posts, so I conclude that there is not solution and that our life can just be in stupid hands or criminal hands. Flying will never be safe.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by officialtravelnews View Post
              Thank you for your posts, so I conclude that there is not solution and that our life can just be in stupid hands or criminal hands. LIFE will never be safe.
              Fixed, if with "safe" you mean "absolute safety".

              Now, if not, then you should know that flying is one of the safest things you can do in life.

              --- Judge what is said by the merits of what is said, not by the credentials of who said it. ---
              --- Defend what you say with arguments, not by imposing your credentials ---

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by officialtravelnews View Post
                Thank you for your posts, so I conclude that there is not solution and that our life can just be in stupid hands or criminal hands. Flying will never be safe.
                'Fraid so. And don't even get me started about the dangers of the ride TO the airport.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by ATLcrew View Post
                  'Fraid so. And don't even get me started about the dangers of the ride TO the airport.
                  aint that the safest part of the trip?????

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    According to the US CDC airline deaths do not make the top ten causes of death (probably way down on the list of causes) but motor vehicle traffic does.
                    In 1984 the top cause was poisoning followed by motor vehicle deaths and falls.
                    See http://www.cdc.gov/injury/wisqars/pd...ury_2014-a.pdf for the other top ten causes.
                    (I'm do not understand why suicide is listed as unintentional.)

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                    • #11
                      We know the statistics, but still, if something happens when driving my car I have a chance to save my life, but in a plane where I am not the pilot there is nothing that I will have a chance to do. Yes, I trust myself 100% more than most of these underpaid and undertrained pilots.

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by officialtravelnews View Post
                        We know the statistics, but still, if something happens when driving my car I have a chance to save my life, but in a plane where I am not the pilot there is nothing that I will have a chance to do. Yes, I trust myself 100% more than most of these underpaid and undertrained pilots.
                        2 things:

                        1- Overconfidence kills.
                        2- Do you realize that 100% more than very little is twice very little which is still very little?

                        --- Judge what is said by the merits of what is said, not by the credentials of who said it. ---
                        --- Defend what you say with arguments, not by imposing your credentials ---

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Simple answer if flying scares you.......

                          ........don't fly !

                          A simple statistic for you. I spent 34 years as a paramedic. I attended many road accidents involving fatalities, probably hundreds dead throughout my career.
                          I never attended any fatal commercial flights.
                          If it 'ain't broken........ Don't try to mend it !

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