Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Flydubai Flight 981 Crashes on Landing in Rostov-on-Don, Russia

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Originally posted by Gabriel View Post
    The same one that you used for your previous calculation: 160 kts.
    LOL...I did not calculate a ground speed.. at least not in common units.

    3 degrees and 720 feet is roughly 2.6 statute miles... 144 knots would do that in roughly a minute and change..that's as far as I took it...

    I'm thinking we really ought to target 120 knots...30 kt headwind component.
    Les règles de l'aviation de base découragent de longues périodes de dur tirer vers le haut.

    Comment


    • Originally posted by 3WE View Post
      LOL...I did not calculate a ground speed.. at least not in common units.

      3 degrees and 720 feet is roughly 2.6 statute miles... 144 knots would do that in roughly a minute and change..that's as far as I took it...

      I'm thinking we really ought to target 120 knots...30 kt headwind component.
      I don't know. V2 is 160/170-ish, V2+10/+20 then is 170/190-ish. That's why I said 160 (taking into account the 30 kts headwind). Althoug those values are for flaps 5. For flaps 15 they have to be a bit lower... so perhaps 144 is a good guess. That, IF everything went normal...

      --- Judge what is said by the merits of what is said, not by the credentials of who said it. ---
      --- Defend what you say with arguments, not by imposing your credentials ---

      Comment


      • Originally posted by Gabriel View Post
        And a trim runaway is a good candidate for a stealthy failure (hard to tell if it was commanded or not).
        I think the area mic on the CVR would clearly reveal the trim wheel sound, wouldn't it?

        Comment


        • Originally posted by Gabriel View Post
          I don't know. V2 is 160/170-ish, V2+10/+20 then is 170/190-ish. That's why I said 160 (taking into account the 30 kts headwind). Althoug those values are for flaps 5. For flaps 15 they have to be a bit lower... so perhaps 144 is a good guess. That, IF everything went normal...
          No Calculus for transitions...2500 feet of climb at 3500 fpm takes ~40 seconds.

          40 seconds at 160 knots gets you ~2 miles...~0.6 miles from the crash site (assuming the go-around initiated from "on-the-glideslope")...a 45 degree dive (rough swag) again based on 'instantaneous' direction changes...

          Given a 10 seconds to transition to the climb, and 10 seconds to push over...

          ...My argument is that maybe you have adequate time, but more likely INADEQUATE time and likely problems on the way up.

          I will refrain from using Evan's qualifier of 'highly probable', and say 'seemingly probable'
          Les règles de l'aviation de base découragent de longues périodes de dur tirer vers le haut.

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Evan View Post
            I think the area mic on the CVR would clearly reveal the trim wheel sound, wouldn't it?
            Yes it would. Commanded or not. When the AP moves the trim, the wheel also spins (boy it does!). No wheel spin = no stabilizer in motion.

            --- Judge what is said by the merits of what is said, not by the credentials of who said it. ---
            --- Defend what you say with arguments, not by imposing your credentials ---

            Comment


            • Originally posted by Gabriel View Post
              Yes it would. Commanded or not. When the AP moves the trim, the wheel also spins (boy it does!). No wheel spin = no stabilizer in motion.
              What I meant was that a runaway stab trim, if it wasn't immediately arrested, would sound like a LOT of trim wheel spinning. The report only tells us that there was SOME nose-down stab trim movement, which I expect is combined with elevator if this was intentional (the somatogravic illusion can also make the pilot feel that elevator alone is ineffective). If it was runaway, I would expect a LOT of trim wheel noise and some conversation on the CVR. Frustrating, these enigmatic bits of information released by an investigation that must know much more by now...

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Evan View Post
                ...Frustrating, these enigmatic bits of information released by an investigation that must know much more by now...
                You do know that discussion fora full of ass-hat parlour speculation is a reason that said "much more known information" is not released..."by now".
                Les règles de l'aviation de base découragent de longues périodes de dur tirer vers le haut.

                Comment


                • Originally posted by 3WE View Post
                  You do know that discussion fora full of ass-hat parlour speculation is a reason that said "much more known information" is not released..."by now".
                  Uh... right, because everyone knows the best way to defeat speculation is by withholding the facts. That always works.

                  With all the ass-hat speculation going on in the mainstream press about the questionable safety record of the 737, I should think they would want to get the known facts out asap.

                  Comment


                  • Random thought. There is a bank angle alarm (I know for fact in the 737 at least because I experienced it) that just repeats "bank angle, bank angle" whenever the bank angle exceeds 35 deg. Shouldn't there be something similar for pitch whenever it exceeds say 30 ANU or 10 AND? Or there is? What they must have gotten with several seconds in advance is a "sink rate, sink rate", and then the "woop woop pull up (but it was probably already too late by then).

                    --- Judge what is said by the merits of what is said, not by the credentials of who said it. ---
                    --- Defend what you say with arguments, not by imposing your credentials ---

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Gabriel View Post
                      Random thought. There is a bank angle alarm (I know for fact in the 737 at least because I experienced it) that just repeats "bank angle, bank angle" whenever the bank angle exceeds 35 deg. Shouldn't there be something similar for pitch whenever it exceeds say 30 ANU or 10 AND? Or there is? What they must have gotten with several seconds in advance is a "sink rate, sink rate", and then the "woop woop pull up (but it was probably already too late by then).
                      There should be. There isn't. Just stick shaker. This isn't a 21st century aircraft.

                      Perhaps there should just be a warning that says "PRIMARY FLIGHT DISPLAY" in such situations.

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Evan View Post
                        Uh... right, because everyone knows the best way to defeat speculation is by withholding the facts. That always works.
                        Actually (and sadly) it works pretty effectively (just not immediately).
                        Les règles de l'aviation de base découragent de longues périodes de dur tirer vers le haut.

                        Comment


                        • I suspect much of the real intent is to avoid lawsuits.

                          If someone on the board says "we think the plane crashed because the pilot is a dummy" and it turns out the crash was due to a bomb, the person on the board (and probably the other board members, the authority that convened the board, the owner of the building where they met, all the board members' pets...) is guaranteed to get sued.

                          If the board says nothing and lets people *think* the plane crashed because the pilot was a dummy, the board doesn't get sued.
                          Be alert! America needs more lerts.

                          Eric Law

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by elaw View Post
                            I suspect much of the real intent is to avoid lawsuits.
                            As you state, that also works pretty effectively.

                            I guess we'll just have to wait for the expletive final report.
                            Les règles de l'aviation de base découragent de longues périodes de dur tirer vers le haut.

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by elaw View Post
                              I suspect much of the real intent is to avoid lawsuits.
                              Indeed.

                              But this just poses another threat to aviation safety. If the reports are accurate and the flight recorders have been read out and the investigation has combed through the FDR plots and all the recorded parameters are known to them at this point, they will know quite a bit about what didn't happen and just releasing that much info would let the concerned operators and pilots and even passengers know where to focus that concern. If it was the plane at fault, that would be forthcoming rather quickly, especially if a fleetwide concern existed. If it was the pilots, there is no particular hurry. Why not? What's the difference here? A threat is a threat. If FlyDubai is running a substandard training regimen, or if a certain universal human stealth factor has been revealed, that information needs to be shared as soon as possible. I realize that it takes quite a while in most cases to make a solid determination, but why not error on the side of safety and at least raise an alarm in the industry?

                              Oh, right, lawyers.

                              Comment


                              • Yeah but there's another consideration too.

                                My previous comment about lawsuits was fairly generic. But we also have...

                                Q: Why not be as open and forthcoming as possible during the investigation, to ensure all parties involved (or that could be affected) have the best possible information in order to make necessary decisions?

                                A: Russia.
                                Be alert! America needs more lerts.

                                Eric Law

                                Comment

                                Working...
                                X