Russian plane crashes over Egypt

[3WE]

Gabriel, this is clearly not the typical stall accident.

Haven't I just said that like, hmmm, one post ago?

We (the aviation community) are way too obsessed with stalls. (Gabriel has made a few dissertations and rants on them from time to time too).

Yeah, sure, the recent cases of deliberate, relentless pull ups have really been something, and yeah, when your tail section or nose or is gone or the control system is FUBAR'd indeed the wings could exceed critical AOA's and cease the proper production of lift in any number of crash modes.

But even if it's not the primary cause we have to make a big public declaration that the plane did or didn't stall. Yes, even Les Abend took a peek at some tracking data and said that it looked as though an aerodynamic stall had occurred here.

One reason we like stalls so much is that it's insider secret code language. You know, my car stalled the other day, and it is indeed a sticky wicket if airliner engines shut down too! Student pilot to significant other- "We stalled the plane"...Significant other, "You turned off the engine, oh my, how dangerous, I'm sure you instantly fell out of the sky...I'm sure glad you got it started again".

So, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall, stall.....

There!

Now, let's wait for a preliminary reports of CVR/FDR data, explosive or weapon evidence, maintenance stuff, if the rumor that the copilot's wife said that the copilot felt the plane had issues. Stalls are not the cause of that many accidents (even though they are the cause of too many).

[Evan]

One reason we like stalls so much is that it's insider secret code language.

I, for one, don't like stalls so much.

The data suggests the plane ultimately fell out, stopped flying, stalled. That is just the apparent path it took out of the sky. The reason we talk about stalls so much is that they usually are the product of gross pilot error, unthinkable pilot error, the worst kind of pilot error occurring in jets that should never, ever get anywhere near stall (and are designed to strongly resist it). I very much doubt that kind of error has occurred here, so thus we aren't really concerned with the stall aspect but rather the in-flight break-up aspect...

[Evan]

One thing I noticed on the ADS-B data... The AP altitude target remained at 32,000 for the duration of the descent. That tells me they were not in an autopilot emergency descent. Still, they may have been in a manual flight emergency descent... FDR report hopefully soon...

[ATLcrew]

Hey, Evan, you're not suspecting a dual ELAC failure perchance?

[Evan]

Hey, Evan, you're not suspecting a dual ELAC failure perchance?

How exactly would that result in a catastrophic structural failure? Do you have ANY idea how modern airplane systems work or do you just think they're all spiderwebs and magic?

[obmot]

Hello
Just two words here, first I'm pretty sure we will know some day the truth but at the moment " le silence est d'or ". That's all "folks". Let's keep peaceful anyway.

+1 Drizzt, the facts will come out, it is nice to read thoughts people have and theories.

Unfortunately we now live in a world where snark/rudeness/baiting/insulting is normal and routine. Websites with forums are ever rarer, as are internet commenters, who will not or cannot raise their level of discourse to decency and civility.

I find that the more impressive commenters are not those who best someone else by out-snarking them, or being proved right, but who can both write original comments and replies without defaulting to the 3rd grade antics.

Many comments on this thread and others are of that nature, it's always nice to find those who rise above. But it is what it is.

Anyway, I read that the flight crew might have radio'd (to ATC?) that they were experiencing difficulties shortly b4 the plane crashed - I'm not sure if that has been verified or discussed here yet (I could only tolerate reading so many snark-fests before I gave up) - do we know more about that?

It also seems like the airline is getting way ahead of itself in announcing what could or could not be involved, which always causes more problems than it solves.

[orangehuggy]

was wondering if a major repair was given special scrutiny in subsequent maintenance checks over and above what that part would normally be inspected, if that was the case before China 611 perhaps the fault would have been noticed, did China 611 change how a repair is monitored in the years after it occurred?

[opa-opa]

China Airlines 611

In the case of China Airlines the repair was done by the airline itself, in an incorrect manner not following Boeing guidelines.

In this case, apparently the plane was flown back to Toulouse and repaired by Airbus themselves. If Airbus themselves cannot fix a tail strike damage properly, we might as well retire all planes once they get a tailstrike....just saying.

[Evan]

In this case, apparently the plane was flown back to Toulouse and repaired by Airbus themselves. If Airbus themselves cannot fix a tail strike damage properly, we might as well retire all planes once they get a tailstrike....just saying.

Do you have a good source for that?

The JAL incident aircraft was repaired by Boeing field technicians but not to the Boeing manual standards. Are you certain this aircraft was returned to Toulouse for repairs. I've read that it was out of service for several months.

[Gabriel]

Anyway, I read that the flight crew might have radio'd (to ATC?) that they were experiencing difficulties shortly b4 the plane crashed - I'm not sure if that has been verified or discussed here yet (I could only tolerate reading so many snark-fests before I gave up) - do we know more about that?

Yes and no:

Egyptian media report with reference to an Egyptian government meeting that the crew reported engine (V2533) trouble, subsequently lost control of the aircraft and communication ceased.

Egypt's Civil Aviation Authority reported that there was no Mayday Call from the crew, communication with the aircraft was normal until the aircraft disappeared from radar.

http://avherald.com/h?article=48e9abe4&opt=0

If you want information double-checked and verified, almost 100% reliable, go there to AvHerald. They also have a comments section in each article but it's very bad. If you don't like it here, you will not like that section.

On a different note, the same article says these interesting (not necessarily related) things:

The tail section of the aircraft was found at coordinates N30.1527 E34.1858, 2230 meters/1.2nm south of the main wreckage and south of the last radar position.

The aircraft suffered a tailstrike in Cairo on Nov 16th 2001. It's then operator had been Middle East Airlines (MEA), its tail number then was F-OHMP. The aircraft was on an ILS approach to runway 05R when the aircraft began to oscillate around the glide path, above and below the glidepath, causing manual corrections by the crew, which resulted in a hard landing and tail strike at touch down and in substantial damage to the aircraft, that nonetheless taxied to the apron where the passengers disembarked normally.

The Aviation Herald is currently investigating the extent of damage and who did the repairs.

On Nov 2nd 2015 the restriction of PASOS waypoint has been withdrawn, airway UL550 and Sinai are open again.

[Evan]

Media frenzy now of a 'heat flash' detected by a US satellite at the time of the crash...

Is this surprising? The main wreckage is incinerated. Obviously a fireball occurred when the wreckage hit the ground, and one might well have occurred in flight from a structural breakup. I don't think anything can be deduced from that finding but it is definitely fuel for conspiracy theorists...

[Jpmkam]

Media frenzy now of a 'heat flash' detected by a US satellite at the time of the crash...

Is this surprising? The main wreckage is incinerated. Obviously a fireball occurred when the wreckage hit the ground, and one might well have occurred in flight from a structural breakup. I don't think anything can be deduced from that finding but it is definitely fuel for conspiracy theorists...

I think they are inferring the flash occurred in flight not on impact.

(CNN)A midair heat flash from Metrojet Flight 9268 was detected by a U.S. military satellite before the plane crashed Saturday in Egypt's Sinai Peninsula, a U.S. official told CNN.

Intelligence analysis has ruled out that the Russian commercial airplane was struck by a missile, but the new information suggests that there was a catastrophic in-flight event -- including possibly a bomb, though experts are considering other explanations, according to U.S. officials.

[Evan]

Bastards!

Are you guys enjoying yourselves?

Brian, what the hell... There are currently 12 posts on this page and 7 of them are off-topic. All we need is a little moderation to keep this forum from... stalling...

[brianw999]

Are you guys enjoying yourselves?

Brain, what the hell... There are currently 12 posts on this page and 7 of them are off-topic. All we need is a little moderation to keep this forum from... stalling...

I agree. Back on topic...and on topic only please. Off topic posts and general mud slinging have been deleted.

[Leftseat86]

The amount of silly speculation in this article is absolutely crazy...and they don't even once mention the prior tail strike...

https://www.rt.com/news/320655-a321-midair-explosion-version/