07-15-2012, 07:28 PM
Originally Posted by Evan
07-16-2012, 02:57 AM
So, in brief, because it was a critical mission with a high powered passenger, they went below minimums to try and land and due to some swiss-cheese factors, botched it and crashed?
Originally Posted by Gabriel
07-16-2012, 10:33 AM
10-03-2012, 09:57 PM
The head of parliamentary commission investigating the crash stated that the military prosecutors have had knowledge about two explosions on board of the plane for about 2 years now but concealed that fact.
He also stated that new findings will be released soon.
10-04-2012, 08:30 PM
Here's the organizing team of the Smolensk crash conference:
10-21-2012, 06:13 AM
10-21-2012, 09:38 PM
Yes, it was very interesting test-carsh the one they did with this 727.
10-22-2012, 01:29 AM
If this had happened in Poland, we would have "experts" on site telling us how even high quality desert sand is too soft to make wings or fuselage snap off.
10-24-2012, 09:10 PM
Over 100 scientists participated in the conference in Warsaw. There were 18 presentations covering different aspects of the crash.
The overwhelming conclusion was that the fragmentation of the plane happened in the air and was caused by some kind of an explosion.
Prof. Binienda presented more results of his research from examining the impact site.
He tested 2 options, one with the plane right side up, and one in the inverted postion.
In both cases, if the plane hit the ground in one piece, there would have been a crater in the ground 1 to 2 meters deep (pic 2).
In Smolensk there was not even a slightest crater visible.
10-24-2012, 09:19 PM
The second experiment dealt with the possible fragmentation of the fuselage had the plane hit the ground as described in the reports.
Again, he examined two scenarios, one right side up, one inverted. The worst result was breaking the plane into 3 pieces.
The ground properties were supplied by an independent lab.
10-24-2012, 09:29 PM
Prof. Obrebski talked about his findings after examining a fragment of the plane that was smuggled out of Russia and delivered to the independent scientists.
He showed a piece that was burnt and blackened inside but very clean outside. The edges indicated powerful tearing forces.
And there were blades of grass jammed into it. The piece had to be exposed to fire first and it collected grass after it landed.
The chemical analysis has not been performed yet but it will be done in the near future.
10-24-2012, 09:46 PM
Prof. Nowaczyk presented again the correct trajectory calculated based on TAWS and FMS data.
The top graph showes the trajectory per official reports where the TAWS 38 and FMS freeze points are ignored (blue dots above the last section of the line).
The correct trajectory is shown on the lower graph.
This time the scientists had access to the QAR data that was provided by the ATM company, the maker of the QAR.
What's also significant is that the QAR data showed a massive cascading failure of several plane's subsystems right at the TAWS38 event.
10-30-2012, 01:58 AM
It has been reported today that Polish experts that spent last month in Smolensk have found traces of TNT on the wreckage.
The prosecutor has confirmed the information. I am attaching the pic of the news. The translation of the main part:
"Already first samples from the inside of the plane and the cover of the wings showed positive results.
The detectors indicated that on 30 seats there were traces of TNT and nitroglycerene. These materials were also found in the central part of the plane where the wings connect to the fuselage.
The amounts were so high that the range of one of the detectors was maxed out. Similar results were obtained at the crash site where larger parts of the plane were found.
The traces of explosives were also detected on parts of the plane found during this last trip to Smolensk."
10-30-2012, 04:43 PM
Given an assumption that somewhere in the aircraft, there was an amount of explosives carried for other reasons than blowing the aircraft out of the air, how would anyone with 100% certainty testify that this explosive substance did not in fact ignite and explode as a function of the aircraft crashing into terrain?
Maybe the Polish authorities are reluctant to admit that they in fact were importing substances which would have been considered illegal if found, but it makes more sense to believe that the TNT or whatever is claimed to have been there was there for a known reason.
As understood from the CVR transcripts, the landing attempt was likley to have been made under some duress, from the "brass in the pax". The allegations that the aircraft was brought down by a bomb that blasted at exacly the same time as the aircraft struck a tree or an antenna mast and lost a wing, smells of red herring.
Is this the ultimate attempt to relieve everyone on board of the aircraft the responsibility for the accident?
The discussion regarding the accurate altitude of the aircraft at any certain point during the descent seems to be assuming that the barometric altimeter was set to the correct reference pressure, and that it was accurate to a few meters. However good that may seem, there is some likelihood that this may not have been the case. So, why based on this, attempt to say that the aircraft could not have hit the tree, which in all fact seems to have been clipped by the aircraft?
I realise that this discussion may stir a hornets nest. It´s too quiet here these days anyway.
Any factual input to this would be welcome-
Last edited by Passion for flying; 10-30-2012 at 10:02 PM.
Reason: misspelling of quiet
10-30-2012, 05:28 PM
Several news outlets in Russia (Interfax, Moscow Echo, Voice of Russia, Svoboda) included the information about the discovery of explosives in the wreckage, most of them without any commentary.
Only the weekly "Sobesednik" suggested that "terrorists" might have been involved.
One of the hypothesis considered by th Polish investigators is that the traces of explosives came from the unexploded WWII ordinance.
10-30-2012, 05:49 PM
Are they suggesting that there was an unexploded WW2 bomb buried where the aircraft came down?
That should, given a reasonable size piece of munition, big enough to contaminate 30 seats inside the aircraft, create a noticeable blast hole in the ground.
Are they also referring tho such a hole?
10-30-2012, 06:01 PM
There was a separate information released today that a family of Ewa Bakowska, one of the crash victims, provided samples from the crash to one of the universities in the US to conduct a chemical analysis.
The results showed traces of TNT. The results have been known since June 16, 2012, but not released out of fear that it would have prevented the return of the plane wreckage to Poland.
In the light of yesterday's revelations there was no need to withhold that information anymore.
10-30-2012, 07:29 PM
Not true. In fact today they denied that they are the source of this news and the newspaper that claimed it admitted that they made a "mistake".
Originally Posted by Northwester
10-30-2012, 08:13 PM
Cezary Gmyz, the journalist of "Rzeczpospolita" who published the news about the TNT traces stated that the information was confirmed by 4 independent sources.
The publication of the news was preceded by the meeting between the newspaper's chief editor and the prosecutor general Andrzej Seremet.
The news caused a political storm in Poland. The accusations are being thrown back and forth between the government and opposition groups.
The head of the oposition is talking about "murder" of 96 Poles, the prime minister is saying that there is no place in Poland for people making such accusations.
10-31-2012, 01:20 AM
Here is a good summary of the recent media storm in Poland:
Wall Street Journal
and New York Times
NYT story has really interesting quote from Polish authorities:
“It is not true that investigators found traces” of explosives, said the spokesman, Col. Ireneusz Szelag, who added that it might be as long as six months before conclusive test findings were available.
Russian and Polish reports published so far, as well as many members of this forum absolutely dismissed an idea of an act of terror. It is interesting to see authorities stating that the will have conclusive test findings only in early 2013.
Another interesting (and tragic) part in NYT piece is that they mentioned that
(..)a witness who was scheduled to testify before a parliamentary investigation was found hanged in his house in Warsaw, presumably a suicide.
The witness, Remigiusz Mus, was a flight engineer who flew into Smolensk an hour before Mr. Kaczynski’s plane crashed. He had said afterward that Russian air traffic controllers gave his flight’s pilot permission to descend to a low altitude in preparation for landing, contradicting an official investigation by the Interstate Aviation Committee.
This is New York Times. I can add that late Mr. Mus testified that traffic control gave his crew permission to descent to 50 meters and also later did the same in conversation with TU-154 crew. He claimed to have heard conversation between TU-154 and traffic controller (it was also recorded by his plane's equipment). He could not provide an explanation why this exchange did not appear in the official CVR transcript.
I provided links to WSJ and NYT hoping to tone down our conversation and avoid insulting attacks. Thank you.