View Full Version : When will it die?
What are the odds of UAL collapsing?
02-18-2003, 10:28 PM
As an Air Canada employee I don't want to see any airlines going under!
I'm plugging my ears! I don't want hear about it! LA LA LA LA LA LA!
State supported airlines(yeah I know Ual takes a lot of gov't money) don't die as easily. But good luck in your company staying afloat.
02-19-2003, 04:22 AM
Im hoping that UAL doesnt collapse. Didnt Continental go through Chapter 11 too? I think that UAL will make it through. It wouldnt sound right to me hearing people talk about current American airlines like American and Delta without United. Probaly doesnt help that Im an Illinoisian (?) and it would really suck to see United be gone from ORD and everywhere else.
02-19-2003, 10:12 AM
Well, war with Iraq will certainly be a major detriment to UAL. In my opinion, that is their greatest hurdle. There was a forum post on this topic but alas it was lost in the server crash.
Somehow I doubt UAL will disappear, the US govt. has pumped too much money into the airline just to let it collapse. Maybe they'll give them another loan or nationalize the airline.
Personally, I've never flown on a US carrier so I am not emotionally tied to any of the airlines. But, United is an all too familiar sight at HKG airport and it'd be a shame to see them go. It'd be a shame to see any large airline go.
02-19-2003, 03:31 PM
UAL will never be nationalized! The other airlines wouldn't allow it, plus capitalist systems aren't setup for that kind of senario. Amtrak is a different story so it's not worth mentioning. I hate to say it but the writing is on the wall for UAL. Even if we don't go to war I don't see UAL lasting past the summer. By April UAL has to meet certain monetary performance goals set up by their lenders and by the looks of it, it's not going to happen. The airline industry is simply to big in the U.S and while the demise of UAL will mean the loss of ten's of thousands of jobs, the industry may rebound and save hundreds of thousands of jobs.
02-19-2003, 04:15 PM
I think Greg was refering to Air Canada as a "State supported airline".
But that would be incorrect. AC hasn't been owned by the Goverment of Canada since the 80's.
Not only is the Goverment not supporting AC, it is in fact killing a large part of the industry with taxes and downloading of services to local airport authories who impose user fees.
I recently priced a ticket for my Mom and Dad to fly YYT-YHZ return.
Airfare was $300! Not bad at all. But then you add in the $290 in fees and taxes and it is cheaper for them to drive. Which they will.
WestJet is complaining loudly about this. Their business plan was to compete with busses and people who might drive, get them into airplanes.
The Canadian Goverment is a vampire feeding on our industry, and they are draining the life out of it.
02-19-2003, 05:23 PM
Don't forget subsidies. The Canadian Gov't gives subsidies to US airlines buying jets from bombardier (subsidies which arent availible to Air Canada, BTW) and the US airlines are flooding the transborder market with seats.
When the time comes, I bet they repatriate us again. 35,000 people is alot to be out on the street.
02-19-2003, 05:39 PM
I have to agree that UAL will never be nationalized. Our current laws simply don't allow it. If the administration didn't need the money to finance a war UAL might have worked out a government backed bailout loan similar to what Chrysler once worked out.
The irony here is that UAL and AA were the big push behind deregulation. They thought they were the only ones well enough financed to last through it and that in the end they would be the only major US carriers. Deregulation may have indeed made affordable air travel available to more people, but the service is at a level that almost everyone uniformly detests. When you consider how many jobs have been lost in the industry since deregulation I don't really see low cost airfare alone as such a bargain for the country.
UAL might have been able to save itself if it's mechanics had been smart enough to see that the airline had the wolves at the door. The mechanics will lose their jobs as a result of their vote against pay reductions, but sadly they have taken away everyone else's jobs at UAL too. A lot of those people will never work again in aviation, there isn't a lot of hiring going on right now and there won't be until well after we are out of the middle-east.
I saw an item the other day that UAL management had a plan to form a low cost, non-union subsidiary to compete with Jet Blue and Southwest. Unfortunately the unions at UAL are dead set against it so it will likely be still-born and there will be no opportunity for those who wanted to keep working to shift to the new carrier.
I sure hate to see all the formerly great US Flag carriers keep disappearing forever. The list just seems to keep getting longer.
02-21-2003, 11:14 PM
Lets look at it this way...
I rarely fly United, for many reasons... Because I don't fly them, that's one passenger they don't have. I'm sure many people feel like me.
In other words, there screwed....
I hope they dont go under!!
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